# Feeding Food

06.25.2022

This is a draft (completed in October 2020) of a piece that was never published. I'm posting it here for anyone who might be interested. The food system is a massive and important topic, and here I've only scratched the surface of one small part of it. Researching and writing this shifted my thinking on many topics—I hope others will also get something from it.

## Limit Break

Nowhere in the world do we see limitless growth. In agriculture, as in the broader natural world, there are nutritional limits that prevent plants and the life that depends on them from growing unbounded. Two limiting nutrients of special importance are nitrogen and phosphorus. Together these form a bottleneck for agricultural systems, with implications not only for food and other agricultural products but also for key features of a post-carbon world, such as bio-based alternatives to fossil fuels and their derivatives and afforestation.

Nitrogen is everywhere, making almost 80% of the air that surrounds us, which is why at first glance its role as a limiter might seem strange. Unlike carbon dioxide, the nitrogen in the air is inaccessible to plants. There are a variety of ways it can be made available to plants, such as through certain "nitrogen-fixing" bacteria or, much less commonly, lightning strikes, but something has to convert nitrogen into its inorganic form (e.g. ammonia) for plants to make use of it5354.

Phosphorus, more commonly a limiting factor in tropical areas55, is not as abundant as nitrogen, circulating through the gradual weathering of rocks.

Though many cultures found ways to better conserve soil nutrients and modestly supplement the nutritional content of soils through manures or legumes (which host nitrogen-fixing bacteria)56, it wasn't until the 19th century that a series of shifts occurred that effectively broke through these limits: the development of global fertilizer supply chains and the Haber-Bosch process for synthesizing nitrogen fertilizer at scale, named for Fritz Haber (sometimes called "the father of chemical warfare") who developed the process and Carl Bosch who later improved it. This process is still the basis for essentially all synthetic fertilizer production today. Nowadays the amount of reactive nitrogen and phosphorus circulating is more than double that of the pre-industrial world57585960.

These developments proliferated over the past century—use rates of nitrogen fertilizer increased over 40 times in the US over this period61—massively increasing global agricultural productivity, tripling agricultural value since 1970 to $2.6 trillion62. In the US synthetic fertilizer may be responsible for anywhere from 30 to 60% of yields, and even higher in the tropics6364. One of the most important consequences of the surpassing of these limits has been exponential population growth. Some 40% to half of the world population may owe their existence to the Haber-Bosch process54. This massive nutritional increase comes at a substantial social and environmental cost and, at least in its current form, is unsustainable. The breaking of these nutrient limits is a major contributor to the breaking of planetary boundaries65: a recent paper estimated that almost 50% of global food production violates planetary boundaries, with almost of half to that (25% overall) due nitrogen fertilizer17. Nitrogen fertilizers are typically applied in excess59; for cereal grain production only about a third of applied nitrogen is actually taken up the crop, amounting to \$90 billion of wasted nitrogen66, with some estimates ranging from half54 to 80%5767 being wasted across all crops. Similarly, estimates suggest only 15 to 30% of phosphorus is taken up686968. But a lot of this excess fertilizer leaches into water systems5465707172, causing eutrophication that has contributed to over 400 marine dead zones69. In the Gulf of Mexico such pollution from US agriculture costs the economy an estimated $1.4 billion annually by undermining fishing, recreation, and other marine activity7173. This overflow also contributes to the flourishing of pathogens like the West Nile virus74. Phosphorus fertilizers also contribute to heavy metal content in agriculture69, as much as 60% of cadmium in crops and soil757668, some of which also makes it to water sources76. In the US, agriculture is responsible for 70% of the total nitrogen and phosphorus pollution67. This water pollution also has direct effects on human health, rendering drinking water toxic6961. Nitrate contamination is linked to many different diseases—blue baby syndrome, some cancers, and more. Violations of EPA limits of nitrate content in drinking water doubled from 650 in 1998 to 1,200 in 2008, while 2 million private wells are above the EPA-recommended standard74. This pollution is expensive to treat and the cost is usually borne by the public. The cost of a treatment facility can be hundreds of millions of dollars; the estimated cost for agriculture's share of the pollution is around \$1.7 billion annually74. The total cost of the environmental and health harm related to agricultural nitrogen in the US has been estimated at $157 billion per year74. Nitrogen fertilizer overapplication also contributes to agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, especially N2O706654 which is now the main contributor to ozone depletion61. The amount of these emissions is estimated to increase exponentially with increased fertilizer usage77. Other concerns regarding over-application—some also with any application of synthetic fertilizers—is their impact on soil health54, such as soil acidification2871 and net losses in soil nitrogen over time (meaning synthetic fertilizers' effectiveness decreases over time)6678. While disputed, some argue that synthetic fertilizer also inhibits soil's ability to sequester carbon64787980. What is more accepted is that more traditional techniques of maintaining soil fertility, which are often abandoned with the introduction of synthetic fertilizer28, improve carbon sequestration8182. Of course, because the issue here is over-application—for example, China can use 30-50% less fertilizer and maintain the same yields and corn farmers in Minnesota reduced nitrogen use by 21% without a decrease in yield71—then the solution should be straightforward: use less of it. Recommendations to avoid fertilizer overapplication are generally about better management, more context-specific application (e.g. depending on what's already available in the soil and what the crop requires, carefully measuring out how much to apply)6028408371168485575474. This approach has been successful—in Denmark, for example, nitrogen fertilizer application decreased 52% since 1985 following the Nitrate Directive in 1987 which prescribes specific nitrogen management practices71. Similarly, a simple one fertilizer management program based on color charts successfully reduced fertilizer N use by about 25%57. The US has also seen improved nitrogen fertilizer efficiency through education initiatives59, but stronger regulation regarding synthetic fertilizer application is typically met with fierce resistance from farm lobbying groups61. Other recommendations look a bit more deeply into why farmers over-apply fertilizer to begin with, especially around risk and incentives. Crop insurance appears to have some effect on fertilizer application rates, though there isn't consensus around their types and strength. One position argues that crop insurance programs encourage the planting of more input-intensive crops because they are better covered by the insurance, thus increasing fertilizer application; another argues that fertilizer over-application is a risk mitigation strategy (better to over-apply than under-apply and have a small harvest) that becomes redundant with crop insurance347274837186. Another position argues that crop insurance encourages agricultural expansion onto lands that are otherwise ill-suited for it—with greater environmental consequences—because crop insurance mitigates the risk of poor yields41. Some empirical studies have found that enrollment in crop insurance programs does increase the use of fertilizer3487 and water88 and does influence land use and crop choice (e.g. towards more nutrient-demanding crops)9, but others have found no effect or the opposite effect on fertilizer use8872. In the case of the USDA, applications for assistance require that the applicant demonstrate genuine attempts to increase yields, which generally means applying fertilizers and adopting other conventional agriculture techniques. Such requirements are implemented out of concerns of gaming the system89. Because crop insurance is subsidized in the US, taxpayers essentially finance the consequent environmental destruction, while also suffering the consequences of water pollution, depletion of fish stocks, and more7489. There are, however, environmental concerns beyond over-application, especially around the production of both nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. Nitrogen fertilizer production—i.e. the Haber-Bosch process—is a large source of agriculture's environmental footprint82. The process requires a hydrocarbon source, usually natural gas, which is combined with nitrogen from the air90919216 and is also used to provide the required heat and energy. The natural gas is supposed to be used up by the process, such that methane emissions are minimal—but the actual emissions have been found to be over 145 times higher than reported93. The production process also emits significant amounts of CO293; in 2011, this accounted for 25 million tons of greenhouse gases in the US, some 14% of the emissions for the entire chemical industry92. A huge chunk of agricultural emissions are actually attributable to fertilizer production due to these CO2 emissions - by one estimate, 30-33%92. There are other problems from fertilizer production, such as pollution contributing to an estimated 4,300 premature deaths per year61 and substantial energy demands, accounting for an estimated third of total energy used in crop production16. Phosphorus fertilizers have their own problems. The extraction and processing of the phosphate rock from which the fertilizer is produced come with the typical environmental issues of mining: water and air pollution, land degradation, erosion, toxic and occasionally radioactive byproducts (e.g. phosphogypsum)94952332966968. However, compared to the nitrogen fertilizer production process, phosphorus fertilizer requires a relatively modest amount of energy (about five times less than nitrogen fertilizer)16. Like nitrogen fertilizer, however, the process is dependent on the fossil fuel industry for inputs, namely sulfuric acid supplied as a byproduct from the oil and gas industry58. Both nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer productions keep agriculture tightly linked to the fossil fuel industries we need to move beyond. With phosphorus fertilizers one impending issue is phosphate rock's finite availability. No equivalent to the Haber-Bosch process exists for phosphorus fertilizer42, so it will continue to rely mostly on mined phosphate rock—about 96% of mined phosphate rock goes to fertilizer7010 and this accounts for about 60% of phosphorus applied to agriculture (the rest is from recycled sources like manure)1068. As with other non-renewable resources, there are concerns around "peak phosphorus"451068. This is an inevitability given that it is a finite resource, but of course when this will occur is difficult to predict as anticipating actual reserves of any mineral is hard and estimates change frequently and by large amounts and according to economic and technological circumstances97451058. Estimates range from within a couple decades to hundreds of years684510. At present the US is a major producer of phosphate rock, primarily in Florida, but that supply is expected to be 60% depleted by 2030 and completely gone mid-century45. China, another major producer, is expected to deplete in the near future as well10. ## The Metabolic Rift All of these issues of the present pour out of a deeper history of fertilizer that represents a more fundamental shift in our relationship with nature. This "metabolic rift" is the sundering of agriculture from its local ecological context98, and has at its core exploitation, colonialism, and imperialism2399100. The siphoning of fertility from the global periphery into Europe and its colonial descendants was foundational to pushing agricultural productivity beyond the limits of what the land could sustain. Fertilizer itself was a common practice to maintain soil fertility while keeping it in production99 but it took the form of night soil, ashes, bones, and other organic waste that were relatively local, often connecting rural and urban populations through substantial logistics systems275468. But such methods could only maintain continuous productivity for so long; nutrient recycling is not perfect8254, and indeed soil depletion became an issue in industrializing nations as populations grew58. Alternative methods such as leaving land fallow or crop rotation did not fit the need for maximizing near-term productivity. To resolve this dilemma, in the 19th century industrializing nations began sourcing fertilizer from distant places—mainly Peru, but also Chile, Ecuador, and Bolivia, in the form of guano and later nitrates996827100. This "Guano Age" saw a tremendous transfer of wealth to British business interests that essentially controlled this trade10027 as well as many deaths through horrendous slave-like working conditions of laborers from China and throughout Latin America2710199 and through multiple wars, including one following Spain's seizures of guano-rich islands100, a proxy war funded by the British so they could essentially annex Bolivian and Peruvian nitrate and guano producing regions10027, and a civil war in Chile also funded by the British to prevent Chile's nationalization of its fertilizer resources100 (Gregory Cushman's Guano and the opening of the Pacific world: a global ecological history provides a detailed look into this history). Many Pacific Islands also saw their share of dispossession and violence. The US sought to secure its own guano deposits, passing the Guano Islands Act in 1856 to unilaterally allow US entrepreneurs to claim new guano islands as US territories27. Under this act 66 islands were claimed as US territory99, with at least 8 still under claim or in dispute. Other colonial powers followed suit, compelling a flurry of claims throughout the Pacific99 that devastated the islands unfortunate enough to be endowed with rich deposits. Two such islands, Banaba and Nauru, were key locations for the mining of phosphate rock. The Banabans, after years of violence and occupation, were eventually resettled after about 90% of their home island's surface was left mined and the trees they relied on for food essentially gone2210210399. Nauru didn't fare much better, with 80% of the surface left looking like a 'moonscape'104102. While Nauru achieved independence in 1968, they are left in a state of economic despair103. The picture looks very different for the beneficiaries of this extractivism. The vast majority of the nutrient wealth extracted from these regions went to European and descendant countries such as the US, Australia, and New Zealand. European-style agriculture was unviable in Australia and New Zealand until imports of fertilizer derived from the Pacific islands turned each into exporters of meat and wool99103 . The fertilizer that resulted allowed the agricultural expansion that supported the industrial development of these countries27. Peru, like Nauru and Banaba, saw little benefit. With guano supplies basically depleted, Peru's farmers became dependent on different nutrient supply chains: imported synthetic fertilizers99. For nitrogen fertilizer the most egregious cases of this imperialist exploitation came to an end with the Haber-Bosch process27, which as discussed above is not without its own significant problems and is still, with its reliance on fossil fuels, fundamentally extractivist. For other nutrients, especially phosphorus, this is not the case. While there Nauru and Banaba's phosphate resources are basically depleted, North Africa is still a site of phosphate mining to this day. In particular, the case of Morocco and Western Sahara shows a clear through-line from fertilizer's broader colonial history to its continuation in the present. Under French control the region supplied phosphate for France's agriculture101. Morocco continues to be the leading exporter of phosphate with the largest reserves105, with estimates of up to 75%-85% of the world total reserves106426997 . Yet some of these reserves that are counted as Morocco's are not in fact in Morocco. They are in Western Sahara, what is sometimes called the "world's last colony"10739. Morocco has occupied Western Saharan since 197542107, with about 80% of the country under Moroccan rule108 under what is best described as a police state, with violence against and killings of activists, politically-motivated imprisonment, and other human rights violations4210911011110810739, with hundreds of Sahrawi "disappeared" and tortured by the Moroccan government10839. Most Sahrawi fled to Algeria, where they still mostly live in refugee camps4210810739. This occupation is at least in part motivated by Western Sahara's phosphate reserves, which is of uniquely high quality107105. Some 10% of Moroccan phosphate income comes from the Bou Craa mine in Western Sahara42 and makes up most of the income Morocco gets from the region75 (fishing is another big source11210839). As of 2015, Morocco has made an estimated profits of$4.27 billion from Western Saharan phosphate rock mines69.

The UN and the International Court of Justice both recognize Western Sahara's right to self-determination10839, and no country officially recognizes the Moroccan occupation as legitimate75107105. Extraction of resources from an occupied territory is clear violation of international law107, which determines that the Sahrawi people should have "permanent sovereignty over [their] resources"39. Yet, over fifty years since this promise of self-determination, as countries continue to import Western Saharan exports10575, has not materialized in any meaningful way.

This is probably because several countries have a vested interest in Morocco. Morocco an important ally to US and the recipient of the most US foreign assistance in the region108107, including financial support and training for the Moroccan military and its operations against the Polisario Front108105, the Sahrawi nationalist movement. The US also helped plan the initial Moroccan invasion of Western Sahara; Kissinger feared communist activity in the area108105. Morocco has suggested using its phosphate production as a lever for protecting its claim to Western Sahara—to pressure Russia, for example75. In 1985, India recognized the independent Sahrawi state, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), but withdrew recognition in 2000 when they established a joint venture with the Morocco phosphate industry107.

Fertilizer production elsewhere also depends on phosphate exported from the area. 50% of the Bou Craa mine's output supplies fertilizer producers in North America, though in 2018 Canada-based Nutrien, the major North American importer, stopped accepting imports from the Bou Craa mine75. Other major importing countries are India, New Zealand, and China75. There have been some recent victories, however. In 2017, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic successfully asserted a claim to a cargo of Bou Craa phosphate rock which was sold to New Zealand-based Ballance Agri-Nutrients75.

As phosphate rock supplies dwindle elsewhere, production from places like Morocco become even more important. Some projections say that Morocco's market share could increase to 80-90% by 20306910, effectively giving Morocco monopoly over the global phosphate market and a greater investment in maintaining control of Western Saharan deposits.

From all this it's clear that the current use of synthetic and non-renewable fertilizers is unsustainable. Yet at the start of the millennium Vaclav Smil concluded that we are fated, at least for the next century, to depend on Haber-Bosch54, and presumably the system of agriculture that is built on it. Have things changed in the intervening decades? Do we have better options now?

There are not many options for substituting phosphate rock (for phosphorus fertilizers the main approaches are using less or exploiting excess accumulated "legacy" phosphorus113), so the focus here will be on nitrogen fertilizers. The main options can be roughly grouped into two categories. There are those which move away from synthetic inputs towards more "natural" approaches, such as organic farming systems, and those which more or less stick to the industrial-chemical model but substitute Haber-Bosch for different processes. Both of these feature into utopian visions of future food systems.

## Fertilizers By Other Names

### Natural Factories? Organic Systems

As alluded to above, the major differentiator of agricultural systems' impacts is nutrient management and the nutrient bottleneck6511482115116549955. Organic systems forgo synthetic fertilizers and other synthetic chemical inputs (though there are circumstances where some may be allowed). Beyond that there can be quite a lot of variety among specific organic systems. More traditional techniques such as intercropping can be used, but aren't required for the organic label to apply114.

In lieu of synthetic fertilizers, other fertilizers like manure are used. These can be less consistent than synthetic fertilizers, as they can have a lot of variety in nutritional composition14 and also require additional microbial action before the nutrients are available to the plants (in synthetic fertilizers they're immediately available, for better or worse)16115. But, in addition to the lower environmental footprint, they have other advantages over synthetic fertilizers. Whereas synthetic fertilizers can lower the pest resistance of plants—thus requiring pesticides117118—organic fertilizers tend not to have this problem119120. They may also better contribute to soil carbon sequestration8165 and improve soil quality in other ways121.

The benefits of organic fertilizers are somewhat tempered when taking into account the impacts of collection and transportation. A farm using organic fertilizer produced on-site is going to require less energy than one that ships organic fertilizer from some distant elsewhere. The reduced nutritional density of organic fertilizers also means that transport energy expenditure on a nutritional basis can be higher as well. But in general because no energy-intensive production process is required, the energy requirements are still substantially less than synthetic fertilizers16.

The debate around the viability of wholesale replacement of conventional agriculture with organic systems inevitably ends up on the problem of the "yield gap"—that is, the difficulty organic systems have of matching the productivity of conventional systems.

Comparing organic and conventional agriculture systems is complicated. There are so many other context-specific factors that influence their relative performance, such as the particular crop, the growing environment, water availability, labor costs, and so on, and these factors may be related in zero-sum ways that by now are familiar: yield increases as N fertilizer use increases, but at cost of water pollution12212355. Comparisons may use a variety of crop specifically bred to maximize productivity under conventional systems, at the expense of traits which make them more productive under organic systems11482. Comparisons can be further complicated by histories of colonialism and displacement, where the highest-quality land is captured by large-scale operations that also happen to utilize industrial agriculture techniques, thus further contributing to higher yields. Larger gaps are found when cereal crops are compared, but this might be because Green Revolution technologies have focused on improving cereal yields in particular114. This is part of a larger trend: agricultural research largely focuses on techniques and technologies applicable in conventional systems, whereas organic and sustainable techniques are relatively underfunded58. The yield gap could be closed further with more research and funding.

One meta-analysis over several hundred agricultural systems—biased towards Western agricultural systems, including the most industrialized systems—concluded that organic systems fall short against conventional systems when compared on a yield basis; i.e. organic systems require more land, result in more eutrophication, and have similar greenhouse gas emissions per unit of food produced6582124. The yield gap ranged from a concerning 50% to a more modest ~90% of conventional output82114. Use of well-known techniques like cover cropping and intercropping can further close the gap6511414, but the gap could also widen under the effects of climate change124.

When this yield gap is taken into account, many of the environmental benefits of organic agriculture are severely reduced to the point where conventional agriculture looks more environmentally friendly. The difference is usually attributed to the fact that organic methods require much more land to achieve the same output124. Thus, for example, benefits in soil carbon sequestration are offset by the increase in deforestation from expansion of agricultural lands12565123. These comparisons, however, use life-cycle assessments (LCA) that are often biased towards the conventional conception of agriculture—that is, focused on agricultural outputs as products—failing to account for the very different conception from organic and other alternative forms that prioritize ecosystem health and have longer-term outlooks. For example, the effects of pesticides, though a key difference between organic and intensive systems, is often not considered126. Land degradation is also generally not included in these assessments126. On a long enough time scale the land degradation resulting from conventional agriculture undermines agricultural productivity (thus lowering these efficiency benefits from the LCA perspective)79. We might also consider that, though perhaps industrial agriculture theoretically has lower land use requirements, the political economy of industrial agriculture is such that it will expand regardless of this land-use efficiency. Organic agriculture, as co-opted by existing agribusiness, is not itself necessarily immune to this.

Such results by no means indicate that conventional agriculture is "sustainable" (especially considering its dependency on finite resources such as phosphate rock) or that it's "low-impact" (still requiring more energy than organic and with human health consequences from pesticides, water pollution, and so on)65. In any case, the prospect that industrial agriculture, which drives all the issues described above, is somehow better for the environment is a troubling if counterintuitive finding. Are there other newer approaches that resolve this dilemma? Ones that are both high-yielding and less harmful?

### Take It Inside: Indoor Systems

One common proposal for improving agriculture—in terms of both yields and impacts—is to challenge its relationship to land. This set of agricultural systems fit neatly into narratives of high-tech progress, including hydroponics, aeroponics, aquaponics, and vertical farming. Hydroponics and aeroponics are two prevailing soil-less growing techniques, in which plants are grown out of water (in hydroponics and aquaponics) or nothing at all (aeroponics), and vertical farming can operate on either. These roughly all fall under the umbrella of indoor farming techniques (they don't need to be indoor, but they almost always are), which also encompasses more "traditional" greenhouse approaches, but has a more potent contemporary imaginary in the form of extremely high yield per acre operations on otherwise non-arable land, with tightly-controlled environments and factory-like efficiency (some of these methods are grouped under PFALs: "plant factories with artificial lighting"127 or just "plant factories" as artificial lighting is usually a given).

Within the -ponic techniques is substantial variety: the exact method can vary (hydroponic, for example, includes "deep water culture" and "nutrient film technique" among others), as can specifics of the configuration (though these techniques are usually associated with artificial lighting, they can also use sunlight), and growing environment (higher energy requirements, for example, in a colder climate)12865, and the specific crop grown, so generalizations can be a little tricky. But there is enough in common across these approaches that some comparisons are possible.

In terms of yields, hydroponic systems can have higher yields than conventional open-field systems367. In the context of urban agriculture, a substantial amount of a city's food demand can be met with local rooftop farms: for example an estimated 77% of Bologna's food demand is met in this way129. A recent study on urban horticulture in the UK (Sheffield) suggests that the expansion of rooftop farms could help meet a substantial amount of the city's fruit and vegetable needs130.

With respect to fertilizer's environmental impacts, these configurations feature closed water systems, meaning that water is used more effectively and recycled. This reduces both water usage and nutrient runoff and improves nutrient efficiency compared to conventional systems31311326713313425127. However, there is still potential for mismanagement and downstream pollution, as salt accumulation in the circulating nutrient solution still results in wastewater that must be properly disposed of128129.

A closed system can be more self-sustaining in other ways, such as using biomass waste to generate biogas to heat the greenhouse or using anaerobic digestion to produce fertilizer on-site128. Aquaponics generally avoids the use of synthetic fertilizers because fish waste provides nutrients13313567, though this does not necessarily mean a complete independence from synthetic fertilizers: fish feed is still an external input, and some setups may require nutritional supplements67.

Advocates of these systems claim they don't require pesticides, but indoor livestock farming was pitched on similar promises that haven't panned out136. Avoiding pesticide use is even more crucial when these farms are in cities129, so this claim warrants even more scrutiny than in other contexts.

These systems can have lower emissions1323, with most emissions coming from the facility structure (steel and concrete)132127, other fixed infrastructure (e.g. pipes)1343129132, and energy use25137, though this varies with energy mix. One way to reduce emissions and other impacts from the facility structure is to re-use existing buildings, though this comes with penalties as the buildings are not tailored specifically for indoor agriculture12925.

Perhaps one of the most lauded benefits is versatility in location—indoor methods don't require arable land137. Indeed, they can require substantially less land even when considering the land use for energy sources. One paper estimates 1:3 ratio of greenhouse area to solar panel area and assumes "a conversion efficiency of 14% and an average daily solar radiation value of 6.5 kWh per square meter per year"5. Using sunlight rather than artificial lighting is even better—one could imagine reclaiming the top floors of abandoned buildings to augment local food production.

From a financial perspective, these indoor systems tend to have high capital costs1371381331395. This includes not only equipment costs, but also the land itself, which in urban centers are expensive compared to rural land, and operating costs139—you pay for what is otherwise provided for free, e.g. sunlight. They tend to grow only leafy green and herbs for business model viability138136, especially because conventional agriculture can still produce the same food for much more cheaply.

Even though the arability of the farm site itself is less important, other geographical aspects still are. For example, where water is particularly expensive (e.g. in Egypt where deep wells must be dug and maintained133), the cost of starting an aquaponics farm is still quite expensive133. Of course, there are situations where the high cost may make sense if it's not possible to grow anything otherwise and other land uses don't make sense1395.

The climate of the site is another important factor. Hydroponics systems can have tremendously more energy requirements compared to conventional agriculture, varying a lot by climate (cooler climates require more heating, for example), which can be disproportionate to yield increases56514013412867. Lighting is the other big energy factor, but climate control is the cause for most of the variation between hydroponic systems25512913767. If the system is such that it has exposure to natural light (e.g. rooftop gardens), then the energy demand is of course further reduced.

In urban environments, these systems can have several additional benefits, depending on how tightly they're integrated with existing urban processes13712825127. The proximity to consumers can reduce impacts from packaging and transport129127, as well as minimizing food loss as well129137. Integration with rainwater harvesting systems can reduce draw on city water supplies12967, and wastewater systems can potentially be developed as nutrient solutions, rather than relying on synthetic fertilizers128. This could reduce the energy used in wastewater treatment, as the nutrients currently processed out to avoid eutrophication can be used to feed plants instead141.

But the fact that indoor methods don't require arable land is a little deceiving. Like conventional agriculture, arability still must be "imported" via inputs like synthetic fertilizers, so in some respects environmental impacts are merely dislocated from the site of production rather than altogether eliminated. Indoor methods are generally not designed to use organic fertilizers, as organic fertilizers are less consistent, less nutritionally dense, and often require some kind of microbial action to make the nutrients available to the plant (the exception here is aquaponics, which is designed around fish waste as fertilizer). For indoor systems, fertilizer production is still the major contributor to eutrophication1293132137. Even though less of this occurs at the site of use, plenty still occurs along the production and distribution chain.

So while these indoor approaches appear to have many benefits and may have a role to play in food production for a limited set of contexts140 (where energy costs are favorable, renewable energy sources are used, the high capital requirements are manageable, and to supplement the diets of land-scarce urban centers), but we shouldn't expect them to replace agriculture wholesale. And they do not necessarily lend themselves to socially-desirable models of production. One could imagine a near future in which insolvent smallholder farms on already marginal lands are displaced for investors to build towering vertical farms in their place.

With regards to fertilizer, they're still held back by many of the problems with synthetic fertilizers—especially their production. Are we stuck with the Haber-Bosch process? Is there a cleaner way of producing them?

### Other Routes to Nitrogen

Though the Haber-Bosch process is the dominant way of producing nitrogen fertilizer, there are a variety of potential alternatives14230. These alternatives usually focus on Haber-Bosch's use of fossil feedstock and high energy requirements, stemming from its need for very high temperatures (300-500C) and pressures (200-300atm)37—"the single most energy-guzzling element of farming"143. These intense demands contrast to the microbes that fix nitrogen under far less extreme temperatures and pressures due to nitrogenase enzymes37.

Naturally, the promise of these nitrogenase enzymes has attracted research interest. One direction is focused on producing nitrogen fertilizer with solar power, at room temperature and normal pressure using these enzymes 143144, though at present the process is slower than the Haber-Bosch process24. There is also more recent research into methods using primarily water (for the hydrogen, that is normally supplied by fossil fuels in the Haber-Bosch process5837), air, and electricity ("primarily" because the process may require expensive metals like palladium as a catalyst145) to create small fertilizer synthesizing devices. Other "solar" fertilizers are similarly produced from water and air but use solar energy directly, rather than through electricity. These also tend to produce more dilute fertilizers that can help avoid overapplication146. This could take the form of relatively small, low-maintenance devices—"artificial leaves"147—that are amendable to decentralized production146 37. A decentralized model has several advantages, such as reducing transportation needs, which can make up a significant portion of fertilizer costs, especially for areas with poor infrastructure146. It may also offer an alternative to the existing capital-intensive, highly-concentrated world of fertilizer production, with its deeply entrenched interests and commitment to the Haber-Bosch status quo.

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), an agriculture industry lobbying group, is deeply committed to the fossil fuel-based method. The AFBF has a long history of working closely with the fossil fuel industry, supporting oil and gas domestic extraction (e.g. fracking), and even coal (which can be used as an input into fertilizer production91, and common in Chinese ammonia production92). This support has sometimes taken the form of outright climate change denial43. The Fertilizer Institute, a lobbying group for the fertilizer industry, is also closely connected to the fossil fuel industry, supporting expanded natural gas production, framing it explicitly as necessary for national food security and threatened by climate change policy148. This allegiance is likely only to grow stronger as pressure grows against the fossil fuel industry.

Questions of industry power aside, there is a lot of uncertainty about the viability of these alternative technologies2437145. A handful of companies cropped up a few years ago trying to produce net-zero emissions fertilizer by replacing Haber-Bosch fossil feedstocks with biomass and switching to renewable energy149, but none of the plants ever went through and the companies all went bankrupt150151. The available information seems to indicate mismanagement as a big contributor to these failures but it seems reasonable that the recent decline in natural gas prices—which has led to conventional nitrogen fertilizer production in the US to expand9293—is likely a large factor as well. The economics continue to favor fossil feedstocks.

Finally, changing the production process doesn't necessarily help address many of the other downstream effects of nitrogen fertilizer. What room is there then for innovating on fertilizer? Is there something with the productivity of synthetic fertilizer but with less of the harm?

### "A Sewer is a Mistake"

A handful of social reformers lamented this partition, begging their fellow citizens to bridge the expanding chasm between city and farm. In his 1862 novel Les Misérables, Victor Hugo wrote, "There is no guano comparable in fertility with the detritus of a capital. A great city is the most mighty of dung-makers. Certain success would attend the experiment of employing the city to manure the plain. If our gold is manure, our manure, on the other hand, is gold."27

One option is to return to the older way of thinking: nutrients not as something to be produced but as something to be reused. The use of animal manure is a common example. If animal wastes can be used as fertilizer, then why not human waste too? 75 to 90% of nitrogen intake is excreted as urine54, which is also responsible for more than half of both the phosphorus and potassium in domestic wastewater (an estimated 16% of all mined phosphorus passes through the wastewater system) while constituting less than 1% of its volume152. In fact, recycling of human waste into fertilizer was once a key part of the agricultural nutrient cycle, until demand outpaced the recycled nutrients, more powerful fertilizers were introduced, and waste became seen as less of a resource and more of a problem (e.g. because of diseases) to be managed153154. Subsequent sanitation innovations responding to this conception of waste-as-problem such as flush toilets and more sophisticated sewage systems with the purpose of moving waste away from people also contributed to the disruption of these older "circular economies"68.

That such a system worked in the past means that we could try to restore it, and there is a renewed interest in recycling human waste into fertilizer155. Phosphorus can be recovered from wastewater through a variety of means, such as using sewage sludge, which has been used to generate high yields14. Or the nutrient-rich wastewater can be used directly as a medium to grow microalgae to treat the wastewater and harvest nitrogen and phosphorus to produce fertilizers156. We excrete almost all of the phosphorus we ingest68, and it can be recovered from wastewater69157. One study finds that some 40% of Australian phosphorus use can be fulfilled with a sewage recovery system96. The value of waste takes other forms too. Biochar is another soil amendment that can be produced from sewage sludge, which does not work well as a nitrogen fertilizer but can have other benefits such as increasing soil carbon sequestration and preventing nutrient leaching1581464158.

Unfortunately the valorization of wastewater for fertilizer is not without problems. The removal of nitrogen and phosphorus are both energy-intensive152 and the scalability of these systems are still uncertain68.

One key complication is waste contamination. Even in the past nightsoil required treatment to be safe54, and now we face a substantially more diverse set of chemicals, including pathogens, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and heavy metals from automotive and industrial runoff159115152. This is true even of animal wastes. Manure from concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs, i.e. "factory farms"), which, though massive in volume and thus an ample supply of nutrients, suffers from these problems of contamination160. This question of contamination has meant that these human waste-derived fertilizers aren't yet permitted for organic farms82. However, processes like vermicomposting, which uses earthworms to digest waste into more nutritious—potentially increasing some mineral concentration (phosphorus, for example) by up to 120% percent156, can reduce the content of some of these contaminants15914. However, the economics are again unfavorable: mining phosphate rock is cheaper than recovered phosphorus.

Reusing excreted nutrients rather than dumping them into the environment is a clear improvement to our current system, but the biggest limitation is that no nutrient recycling process will be able to recover all of the incoming nutrients. We couldn't rely on it alone: even a high-efficiency waste nutrient recycling system will still need to be supplemented.

### Little Helpers: Biofertilizers

There is a class of fertilizers called "smart fertilizers" which usually refer to some slow-release mechanism so that nutrients are released more synchronously with plant uptake (i.e. released as plants need, instead of all at once). The mismatch of nutrient availability and plant need is a large factor in why fertilizer runoff and N2O emissions are as bad as they are; if plants used more of the nutrients then less would make it to waterways6447. This category encompasses a number of different methods, including organic wastes64, using slow-release casing, and biofertilizers.

Biofertilizers are fertilizers based on microbes; for example, nitrogen biofertilizers take advantage of existing nitrogen-fixing microorganisms such as cyanobacteria161162163164165. Like other fertilizers, they increase yields163164159166, and like the naturally-occurring instances of these microbes, biofertilizers may provide additional benefits such as pest protection161167163164168165, reduced soil erosion6165, additional growth beyond just that from the increased nutrient supply164159168165, and additional carbon sequestration165. The production process can involve fermentation (e.g. with yeast164168) or vermicomposting (i.e. the use of worms) from agricultural waste or wastewater16415914. These processes are accessible even in conditions of low capital (they are substantially cheaper than synthetic fertilizers169168) or without additional energy sources.

The use of such "plant probiotics"163 is not itself new163614170—for example, use of manures also introduces these microbes1646 and some are already commercialized on a small scale163. Environmental concerns around the Haber-Bosch process and other extractive fertilizer production processes, along with advances in biotechnology164, are drawing a renewed interest in commercializing the technology on a larger scale. There are however issues with scaling this to an industrial model: for example, transport and storage of living organisms is more complicated than relatively inert chemical fertilizers16116414.

As high as these subsidies are, they can't compete with those in wealthier countries. OECD countries provide subsidies to their own farmers of about $1 billion per day228, and such financial support encompassed 30% of all farm receipts from 2003-2005178. This is compounded by the fact that Green Revolution technologies often come as a package. Specific varieties of crops are necessary to achieve the full yield improvements of synthetic fertilizer use (this varieties are usually intellectual property), and increased sensitivity to pests from fertilizer user necessitates the use of pesticides38119229. Higher productivity can also require more water, beyond what the water cycle normally provides, so irrigation also increases27. In the case of Malawi, the suggested alternative to fertilizer subsidies is addressing underlying issues: policies aimed at relieving the key constraints that our model tries to capture—such as land, credit and labor availability—might go further towards addressing the bottlenecks to on-farm intensification that smallholders in Malawi encounter, and could lead to the adoption of better on-farm practices that reverse soil degradation and improve the long-term viability of small-holder agriculture.226 Interestingly, many countries in SSA are agricultural exporters while being net food importers. That is, SSA's dependency on food imports is in part due to agricultural land and resources being directed for export-oriented production (in a form reminiscent of their colonial histories230) rather than supplying the country's food needs—"even a small substitution in their agricultural export products into food would eliminate their deficits"210. This push towards agricultural production for export is in part driven by this need for income to purchase food imports and in part to manage national debts. The 1990s, Malawi, under the advisement of USAID and the tobacco industry, re-oriented production from food crops to tobacco crops with the goal of paying off its debt, with part of the rationale being that revenue from tobacco exports would be plenty to purchase the food needed to account for reduced production. The consequence, however, was that the ability for Malawian farmers to feed themselves was no longer dependent on their own agricultural ability, but rather on market prices for tobacco—which fell by 37% in 2009, and made it difficult for farmers to feed themselves212. Sometimes this shift to export-oriented cash crops is further frustrated by the surpluses of major producers. Where some countries had advantages in producing things like sugar, the rise of processed foods meant fewer people were consuming sugar directly, instead mediated by processed foods—and as such, that opened up the possibility of sugar substitutes, i.e. HFCS, which then undermined countries with the comparative advantage for sugar production, as corn was overproduced and very cheap. Thus these countries were in a double-bind: food import dependency plus declining revenues from crop exports192. These dynamics appear elsewhere too. In Nepal, though fertilizer subsidies do tend to increase crop yields, environmental problems are exacerbated231, and the subsidies may disproportionately benefit farmers who are more connected to the state and/or wealthier to begin with231221. In India, initial bumper crops from subsidized fertilizer application then gave way to crop failures and soil depletion38232, saw a move away from traditional techniques like crop rotation towards continuous cultivation of export-oriented crops38, and increased stratification between farmers who could afford the Green Revolution technologies and those who could not afford to stay on their land38205. Vandana Shiva describes deeper social shifts these technologies fomented: The shift from internal to externally purchased inputs did not merely change ecological processes of agriculture. It also changed the structure of social and political relationships, from those based on mutual (though asymmetric) obligations—within the village to relations of each cultivator directly with banks, seed and fertilizer agencies, food procurement agencies, and electricity and irrigation organisations.38 ## Hand to Mouth Content warning: There is some mention of suicide in this section. This high-input and market-dependent form of agriculture puts farmers into a double-bind: they are both exposed to the impacts of fertilizer prices on their own production costs but also on the costs of their food1569. One study finds that increasing fertilizer prices would decrease crop yields by up to 13%7, reducing income. In addition to the typical weather and climatic risks of agriculture, they are now exposed to the volatility of export restrictions, financial speculation, as well as the weather and climactic risks of wherever they import food from2334815! Risk has magnified, rather than diffused, through this system23415233212. Arrangements such as contract farming integrate smaller farmers into global agricultural industrial supply chains through arrangements that ensure buyers (with substantially more market power, who do not need contribute to the costs of production, also ways around labor laws) bear little of this risk78212, much like the increasing use of contract workers throughout other industries. Scalability becomes absolutely vital to generate enough revenue to remain solvent. Farmers with lower yields—i.e. subsistence farmers and those with less access to the capital necessary for scaling up—are the ones at the greatest risk19882235. Agricultural finance recognizes this, compounding the effect by giving larger farms cheaper loans, along with other advantages such as more opportunities to exploit cheap labor204. The trap is intensified due to the declining effectiveness of inputs, which have the effect of degrading the soil232. The general necessity of absolutely maximizing output for a piece of land encourages the extractivist model of agriculture, in which the soil is "mined", with nutrients pulled out faster than they can be naturally replaced78; sometimes even faster than they can be "unnaturally" replaced. In India, farmers require three times the fertilizer to achieve the same yields as they used to, while the prices for those crops remain the same or decline232. Insolvency is basically inevitable. When farmers try to re-integrate traditional practices or develop systems parallel to conventional inputs, they are shut down. In Zimbabwe, farmers could not sell their own seeds as alternatives to the engineered hybrids—the practice was made illegal213. What are the consequences of this precarity and lack of control over one's life? One may be an increase in farmer suicides21—farming is the profession most at-risk for suicide236. The farmers most likely to commit suicide are those who have marginal landholdings, focus on cash crops, and are indebted, which are exacerbated by all of the dynamics described above213821652. Another consequence of this precarity is the increasing concentration of agricultural land and production. ## Land Grabbing Farmers, now unable to support themselves on the land, have no choice but to sell it. Agricultural land concentrates into fewer and fewer hands, contiguous with the dispossessions that occurred with colonization. Here, however, these dispossessions result from a mix of economic factors, driven by overproduction, and legal means, with post-colonial states, under the direction of development organizations like the US's Millennium Challenge Corporation, often facilitating the process by unilaterally replacing traditional land right systems with ones more amenable to foreign investment and ownership212218237. More recently foreign acquisition of agricultural land, called "land grabs", have attracted a lot of attention. These acquisitions may be about food, water, and energy security238239240, just about expanding agribusiness amidst rising demand for biofuels and other cash crops239, and for financial speculation212241, faciliated by technologies that make their agricultural development easier to manage remotely as financial assets242. The countries where these land grabs are most common in recent years are Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia243. In Ethiopia, some 10% of the country's agricultural land has been handed to foreign investors for commodity crops for export212. The World Bank and FAO has framed these as "win-win" opportunities for economic development13244 . In Sudan this export-oriented appropriation of land saw higher food prices, monopolized water usage, and resistance from the local population that was met with violence237. Sometimes farmers aren't displaced but are actively involved in the investment process, seeking capital to stay afloat242. Otherwise farmers are displaced204237: for example, a British firm acquired 9,000 ha of land in Tanzania, potentially displacing over 11,000 people for biodiesel production245. The newly managed farms may be highly automated so that there isn't even much promise of any employment240, so these displaced people constitute a "surplus" population often relegated to slums204. Foreign workers are brought in to work the land with relatively little interaction with the local population243; the land is meant to operate, it seems, as a virtual extension of the country that owns it. This is also occurring throughout the global North, where agricultural productivity tends to be higher and property rights are less risky for investors242, though the Food Security is National Security Act was introduced in 2017 to prevent foreign control of US agricultural land246. In the EU, millions of farms were lost over the past decades212. In the US, there is the original and ongoing dispossession of indigenous lands and subsequent and ongoing dispossession of black farmers' land24724189. US agriculture is already highly concentrated: some 3% of farms in the US are responsible for 50% of the value of all agricultural production5089. Often this land remains idle. For example, biofuel production slowed when oil became cheap again, and it wasn't worth developing the land2. ## Back to Biomass Agricultural products encompass much more than just food; they are also produced as fuel, pharmaceuticals, bioplastics, and so on. Even within the category of "food" there are agricultural products for direct human consumption, those that are used as animal feed, and that used for food processing (e.g. snacks, beverages, oils). These categories are not clear cut either: corn may be grown for any of these, but corn itself is a heterogeneous crop and individual corn varieties are not necessarily fungible. Corn grown for animal feed, for instance, will be starchier than that grown for direct human consumption. Cane or beet sugar, though something we use in cooking directly, is more commonly an input into the snack and beverage industry (where it hasn't been out competed by corn-derived high fructose corn syrup). The same is true for other such "flex crops", which have a variety of possible end-uses. The sustainability of food production and its ability to actually feed people then is deeply connected to these alternative uses of agricultural capacity. For example, expanded demand for biofuels may cause food prices to rise (30% of grain price increases during the 2007-2008 global price food spike is attributed to biofuel demand248) and encourage deforestation from agricultural expansion 24925015. Here food's market value dictates whether or not it's grown instead of potentially more profitable alternatives. But there are many things we can do to reduce the necessity of fuels; we cannot reduce our need for food to live. ## Agroecology and Technology What alternative is there to all of this? The commodification of food—seeing it as something to be produced and sold like factory goods—drives a lot of the dynamics described above. Agroecology that sees food not as something to be manufactured and agriculture not as a factory-like process but as a scaffolding for relationships and a source of autonomy. Agroecology has some overlap with practices like organic and regenerative agriculture, at least in terms of focusing on environmentally-friendlier techniques, but where it differs is its commitment to social and economic issues outside of the specific production process (sometimes contrasted with a "input substitution" approach to agriculture208). An organic or a regenerative farm's efforts at sustainable or remediative production might be hampered by market demands, for example251. That's sort of reflective of organic agriculture's trajectory. As Julie Gutman describes in Agrarian Dreams: The Paradox of Organic Farming in California, organic agriculture originally encompassed more radical notions of food system change but was over time shaped to be focused on very specific aspects of the production process and integrated into the existing agribusiness industry252. Agroecology is not itself immune to this kind of co-optation, as a recent report on "junk agroecology" describes253. Peter Rosset and Miguel Altieri outline agroecological production principles: The production system must (1) reduce energy and resource use and regulate the overall energy input so that the output:input ratio is high; (2) reduce nutrient losses by effectively containing leaching, runoff, and erosion, and improve nutrient recycling through the use of legumes, organic manure and compost, and other effective recycling mechanisms; (3) encourage local production of food items adapted to the natural and socioeconomic setting; (4) sustain desired net output by preserving natural resources (by minimizing soil degradation); and (5) reduce costs and increase the efficiency and economic viability of small and medium-sized farms, thereby promoting a diverse, potentially resilient agricultural system.208 Actual techniques can encompass many things, such as re-integrating rural-urban nutrient cycles254, using natural fertilizers and nitrogen-fixing cover crops like legumes, soil-conserving and soil-building practices, ecologically-rooted pest management practices, and so on208. These have both environmental and economic benefits. For example: a system integrating perennial native prairie plants can reduce fertilizer use and runoff, saving more than$850 million per year in costs and damage74, and can increase yields by improving soil health, such as with the use of "fertilizer trees" as in parts of Africa (a practice called "evergreen agriculture")255256. These techniques can be used while considering their social and political effects. George Washington Carver, for example, advocated the use of legumes (such as peanuts) both as a way of maintaining soil health but also as part of a program for economic and political autonomy257. Agroecological soil management practices can improve fertility without needing to resort to subsidized inputs258, helping break the debt cycle. In general, these approaches have been found to improve crop yields while reducing inputs258.

The acroecology movement is led by peasants and peasant organizations like the Landless Workers Movement (MST), the Zapatista Army for National Liberation (ELZN), and La Via Campesina, with networks encompassing thousands and thousands of small producers across continents78259260. Peasants are a powerful force; despite centuries of dispossession, over half of the world's arable land is still under their ownership78, and, despite industrial agriculture's dominance in our food system, are major producers of food.

Smallholders (farmers with <2ha of land) produce about a third of the world food supply (measured as calories) on about a quarter of the agricultural area (close to half of the food supply if farms <5ha of land are included)261. What this implies is that smallholders already have productivity that out pace larger-scale operations, even on land that may be marginal. Further research and development of agroecological, low-input methods have the possibility to increase this number even more. However, funding tends to disappear for researchers developing these techniques228262. One example is that, following a $1.7 million donation to Iowa State University by the Koch Foundation (the Koch brothers own Koch Fertilizer), the university's Aldo Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture had its funding pulled after 30 years263. Despite this, agroecological innovation happens outside of formal research settings through peer-to-peer knowledge exchange and development. Unlike the agricultural input industry, which is top-down and where products are pushed onto farmers who have essentially no input in their design, agroecological techniques are often co-created by peasants and refined to their own specific contexts78. Agroecology is sometimes characterized as a romanticization of labor-intensive subsistence farming264. A lot of labor-saving technologies basically work by substituting human labor with fossil fuels. If we look at the energy efficiency of these technologies, we see a different picture: about five times energy (fossil fuels, mostly) go into one kg of cereal in industrialized countries vs farmers in Africa, with more drastic differences on a crop-by-crop comparison, such as 33 times energy in the US to produce one kilo of maize as a traditional farmer in Mexico212. There are similar estimates for industrial food production more generally, 3kcal fossil fuel for 1kcal food19, with estimates as high as 7kcal for 1kcal178 or 10kcal229265. That the industrial-style of agriculture (input-heavy) is a net negative in terms of energy has been demonstrated since at least 1960s; which is characterized in terms of crops that are bred to maximize productivity in terms of the valuable parts of the crop (e.g. what is edible) at the expense of other functions, such as pest resistance, which are instead externalized to, for example, pesticides266. Similarly, agroecological methods have been characterized as equivalent to traditional subsistence practices or the movement as anti-technology267. It may be more appropriate to say that it has a different understanding of technology, measuring it not only by how useful it is in the field, but by what impacts it has on relationships. Does it create a dependency on finite resources and empower large companies? Does it involve buying into a system of debt262? "Technology" is also often conflated with industrial, large-scale, and energy-intensive processes, but traditional labor-saving practices like coppicing268or the ongoing development of perennial grains269 can also be considered technologies of sorts. The previously mentioned fertilizer tree system is itself an outcome of research starting in the 1980's on nitrogen fertilization alternatives, conducted with the participation of farmers256, offering an example of productive agroecological research. The Out of the Woods collective also describe "cyborg ecology", where technology adoption should not be out of some binary commitment to a constructed purity around traditional techniques or modern technologies but out of evaluating what works without sacrificing ecological and social priorities259. The distributed production of solar fertilizers mentioned much earlier might fit this criteria. Cuba is sometimes pointed to as an example of what agroecological practices could make possible on a larger scale. Cuban agriculture was once more akin to industrial, Green Revolution agriculture found elsewhere, supported by trade deals with the Soviet Union which supplied the necessary inputs: fossil fuels, fertilizers, machinery, etc.170260 When the Soviet Union collapsed, these inputs were suddenly unavailable, resulting in GDP and calorie consumption each plummeting by one-third27027123544186. Ongoing US blockades prevented dumping of cheap food into the Cuban market, further forcing Cuba to develop its own self-sufficiency in the absence of these inputs235. Through this "Special Period", land reform redistributed over 1 million hectares of state-owned land to a variety of cooperatives and individuals27027117026044 (under usufruct terms, so most of the land is still state-owned186). Cuba went on to achieve the highest per capita food growth rates in Latin America260, facilitated by the land reform and the adoption and peer-to-peer transmission of agroecological techniques via peasant movements such as Campesino-a-Campesino26023517078—the latter of which was ongoing, but provided an opportunity to expand after the forced withdrawal of the industrial regime186. Over 65% of the country's food is produced by peasant family farms on 35% of the total arable land.186Cuban urban gardens, organopónicos, also a legacy of the post-Soviet "Special Period", produce as much as 70% of the fresh vegetables consumed in cities270271 and 50% of the produce for the entire country186. Lower levels of dissolved nitrogen in the island's rivers, compared to the US's Mississippi River Basin, is speculated to be a consequence of this shift in farming practices272. This is not to say Cuban agriculture is fully agroecological—there are still conventional farms (usually state-run) and varying adoption of agroecological techniques186. There is still some dependency on oil for agriculture, though those who have adopted agroecology are more resilient to its absence, such as from US sanctions this past year273. Cuba's food system still has other issues, such as with food waste, which is comparable to rates elsewhere, and generally attributed to infrastructural inadequacies rather than the overproduction and market-driven causes in the global north186. Yet this still results in inadequate food for many. Pressure from agribusiness entering into Cuba274, especially with opening Cuba-US relations (for example: a Cargill-associated "US Agriculture Coalition for Cuba" seeks to "to lift the embargo in order to liberalize trade and investment and reestablish Cuba as a market for US products"186), and tensions within the country with some leaders advocating for higher-input/more conventional systems271. Changing relationships with the US may be the largest determinant of how Cuban agriculture changes in the future, with fears that it may become more focused on export for organic food markets and less on supplying domestic needs186. Cuba's dependency on expensive food imports has also increased170 which has made expanded self-sufficiency a priority. Laws were passed in 2008 and 2012 to enact a further distribution of 1.7 million hectares of land to over 200,000 farmers, with roughly an additional 900,00 hectares up for distribution in 2017186. The impacts so far are unclear — the overall amount of food imports is contested, with one figure placing it at 40%186. Hurricanes increase Cuba's dependency on food imports, though the agroecological farms tend to recover more quickly than monoculture farms271186. Though Cuba's food system is not perfect, it shows that an agroecological system is worthwhile and achievable. ## Conclusion: Healing the Rift The focus here has been on food, but these issues will become more pressing as the economy—if we are to adequately address climate change—shifts back to one with greater dependence on biomass for materials. Consider that a tremendous amount of materials are petroleum-derived or otherwise produced from non-renewable resources254—including those that industrial agriculture rely on78. Switching to bioplastics, for instance, can have greater environmental impacts and greenhouse gas emissions than petroleum-based plastics due to land use change275. Climate change will lead to an aggregate decrease in agricultural productivity27621262, increasing the number and scale of droughts and heatwaves29 and eroding and submerging productive land277. Food prices would rise and possibly encourage an influx of investors and speculation. We could see climate change and its effects on food production used to increase pressure of technocratic development authorities to act with a stronger mandate to implement Green Revolution-style programs and strengthen the narrative of peasants using land unproductively and as justification for land grabs. Climate change is already having an effect on displacing farmers239. The key cause for these issues with conventional agriculture stem from the fact that it is not designed to fulfill a need—i.e. sustenance and nutrition, though it is often spoken as such in policy and popular discourse—but rather, it is designed to produce and sell commodities. There is a huge dissonance between the refrain of FAO population projections and the need to increase food production to feed them, when the current system of tremendous output fails to feed even the people we have now. A report from Nature notes that, "[p]roducing enough food for the world's population in 2050 will be easy."228. The report goes on to note, the more urgent challenges are sustainable productivity and, more importantly, poverty—poverty that is itself produced by this productivist agricultural regime. As the authors note: The 2008 food crisis, which pushed around 100 million people into hunger, was not so much a result of a food shortage as of a market volatility — with causes going far beyond supply and demand — that sent prices through the roof and sparked riots in several countries.228 A recent paper similarly suggests that almost 11 billion people can be adequately fed within planetary boundaries, but it requires a radical restructuring of global agriculture17. One way to support this restructuring is to return wealth that has been extracted from these post-colonial nations and invest it in agricultural infrastructure that support greater food autonomy. It can mean increasing public research for agroecological methods and land reform, such as redistributing land back to those who have stewarded it for generations215. It requires moving on from the concept of food security—market access to food—to food sovereignty: producing food for need, prioritizing agroecological methods, local production and control212278178, and restoring more context-appropriate traditional crops where they have been displaced by commodity crops213. The problems of fertilizer are inseparable from the broader political and economic problems of food production. Throughout history people have recognized how a community's control over their own means of living is a prerequisite for flourishing and self-determination. As Vann R. Newkirk II notes in his "The Great Land Robbery": There’s a reason the fabled promise that spread among freedmen after the Civil War was not a check, a job, or a refundable tax credit, but 40 acres of farmland to call home. 1. A Report on the United Farmers and Rancher Congress. September 11, 1996. 2. After Geoengineering: Climate Tragedy, Repair, and Restoration. Holly Jean Buck. 3. Anton, A., Montero, J. I., Munoz, P., & Castells, F. (2005). LCA and tomato production in Mediterranean greenhouses. International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, 4(2), 102-112. 4. Baker, G. A., Gray, L. C., Harwood, M. J., Osland, T. J., & Tooley, J. B. C. (2019). On-farm food loss in northern and central California: Results of field survey measurements. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 149, 541-549. 5. Barbosa, G., Gadelha, F., Kublik, N., Proctor, A., Reichelm, L., Weissinger, E., ... & Halden, R. (2015). Comparison of land, water, and energy requirements of lettuce grown using hydroponic vs. conventional agricultural methods. International journal of environmental research and public health, 12(6), 6879-6891. 6. Biofertilizer. The Azolla Foundation. http://theazollafoundation.org/azollas-uses/as-a-biofertilizer/ 7. Brunelle, T., Dumas, P., Souty, F., Dorin, B., & Nadaud, F. (2015). Evaluating the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields. Agricultural economics, 46(5), 653-666. 8. Burns, C., & MacDonald, J. M. (2018). America’s Diverse Family Farms: 2018 Edition. EIB-203, USDA-Economic Research Service. 9. Claassen, R., Langpap, C., & Wu, J. (2016). Impacts of federal crop insurance on land use and environmental quality. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99(3), 592-613. 10. Cooper, J., Lombardi, R., Boardman, D., & Carliell-Marquet, C. (2011). The future distribution and production of global phosphate rock reserves. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 57, 78-86. 11. Don't End Agricultural Subsidies, Fix Them. Mark Bittman. March 1, 2011. Retrieved from https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/dont-end-agricultural-subsidies-fix-them/ 12. Fan, M. S., Zhao, F. J., Fairweather-Tait, S. J., Poulton, P. R., Dunham, S. J., & McGrath, S. P. (2008). Evidence of decreasing mineral density in wheat grain over the last 160 years. Journal of Trace Elements in Medicine and Biology, 22(4), 315-324. 13. FAO Economic and Social Development Department, 2009. "From Land Grab to Win-Win - Seizing the Opportunities of International Investments in Agriculture," FAO - Economic and Social Perspectives 4EN, Economic and Social Development Department of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 14. Flores-Félix, J. D., Menéndez, E., Rivas, R., & de la Encarnación Velázquez, M. (2019). Future Perspective in Organic Farming Fertilization: Management and Product. In Organic Farming (pp. 269-315). Woodhead Publishing. 15. Food Price Volatility and Insecurity. Toni Johnson. January 16, 2013. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/food-price-volatility-and-insecurity 16. Gellings, C. W., & Parmenter, K. E. (2016). Energy efficiency in fertilizer production and use. Efficient Use and Conservation of Energy; Gellings, CW, Ed.; Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, 123-136. 17. Gerten, D., Heck, V., Jägermeyr, J., Bodirsky, B. L., Fetzer, I., Jalava, M., ... & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020). Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries. Nature Sustainability, 1-9. 18. Growers Sue to Roll Back Farm Workers’ Wages. David Bacon. January 25, 2019. Retrieved from https://prospect.org/labor/growers-sue-roll-back-farm-workers-wages/ 19. Hall, K. D., Guo, J., Dore, M., & Chow, C. C. (2009). The progressive increase of food waste in America and its environmental impact. PloS one, 4(11), e7940. 20. How Finance Structures Global Value Chains. Tomaso Ferrando. January 6, 2020. Retrieved from https://lpeblog.org/2020/01/06/how-finance-structures-global-value-chains/#more-3156 21. Kennedy, J., & King, L. (2014). The political economy of farmers’ suicides in India: indebted cash-crop farmers with marginal landholdings explain state-level variation in suicide rates. Globalization and health, 10(1), 16. 22. King, S., & Sigrah, K. R. (2004, November). Legacy of a miner's daughter and assessment of the social changes of the Banabans after phosphate mining on Banaba. In Changing Islands–Changing Worlds. Islands of the World VIII International Conference. Taiwan. 23. Langa, S. G. (2014). Potash extraction and historical environmental conflict in the Bages region (Spain). Investigaciones Geográficas (Esp), (61), 5-16. 24. Light sparks conversion of dinitrogen to ammonia. Stu Borman. April 22, 2016. https://cen.acs.org/articles/94/i17/Light-sparks-conversion-dinitrogen-ammonia.html 25. Martin, M., & Molin, E. (2019). Environmental Assessment of an Urban Vertical Hydroponic Farming System in Sweden. Sustainability, 11(15), 4124. 26. Mason, N. M., Jayne, T. S., & Van De Walle, N. (2017). The political economy of fertilizer subsidy programs in Africa: Evidence from Zambia. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99(3), 705-731. 27. Melillo, E. D. (2012). The first green revolution: debt peonage and the making of the nitrogen fertilizer trade, 1840–1930. The American Historical Review, 117(4), 1028-1060. 28. Miao, Y., Stewart, B. A., & Zhang, F. (2011). Long-term experiments for sustainable nutrient management in China. A review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 31(2), 397-414. 29. Newly Identified Jet-Stream Pattern Could Imperil Global Food Supplies. Jeff Masters. December 9, 2019. Retrieved from https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/newly-identified-jet-stream-pattern-could-imperil-global-food-supplies/ 30. Nitrogen Production Technologies. Retrieved from https://wcroc.cfans.umn.edu/research-programs/renewable-energy/energy-crops/nitrogen-production 31. On Farming YouTube, Emu Eggs and Hay Bales Find Loyal Fans. Louise Matsakis. December 18, 2019. Retrieved from https://www.wired.com/story/farming-youtube-emu-eggs-hay-bales-find-fans/ 32. Othman, I., & Al-Masri, M. S. (2007). Impact of phosphate industry on the environment: a case study. Applied Radiation and Isotopes, 65(1), 131-141. 33. Papargyropoulou, E., Lozano, R., Steinberger, J. K., Wright, N., & bin Ujang, Z. (2014). The food waste hierarchy as a framework for the management of food surplus and food waste. Journal of Cleaner Production, 76, 106-115. 34. Regmi, M., Briggeman, B., & Featherstone, A. (2019). Estimating Effects of Crop Insurance Enrollment on Farm Input Use. 35. Rosenzweig, C., Mbow, C., Barioni, L. G., Benton, T. G., Herrero, M., Krishnapillai, M., ... & Tubiello, F. N. (2020). Climate change responses benefit from a global food system approach. Nature Food, 1(2), 94-97. 36. Rougoor, C. W., Van Zeijts, H., Hofreither, M. F., & Bäckman, S. (2001). Experiences with fertilizer taxes in Europe. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 44(6), 877-887. 37. Shipman, M. A., & Symes, M. D. (2017). Recent progress towards the electrosynthesis of ammonia from sustainable resources. Catalysis Today, 286, 57-68. 38. Shiva, V. (1991). The violence of the green revolution: Third World agriculture, ecology and politics. 39. Smith, L. E. (2005). The struggle for Western Sahara: What future for Africa's last colony?. The Journal of North African Studies, 10(3-4), 545-563. 40. Snyder, C. S., Bruulsema, T. W., Jensen, T. L., & Fixen, P. E. (2009). Review of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production systems and fertilizer management effects. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 133(3-4), 247-266. 41. Sumner, D. A., & Zulauf, C. R. (2012). Economic and environmental effects of agricultural insurance programs (No. 643-2016-44463). 42. The Desert Rock That Feeds the World. Alex Kasprak. November 29, 2016. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/11/the-desert-rock-that-feeds-the-world/508853/ 43. The Farm Bureau: Big Oil’s Unnoticed Ally Fighting Climate Science and Policy. Neela Banerjee, Georgina Gustin, John H. Cushman Jr. December 21, 2018. Retrieved from https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20122018/american-farm-bureau-fossil-fuel-nexus-climate-change-denial-science-agriculture-carbon-policy-opposition 44. Uriarte, M. (2002). Cuba, social policy at a crossroads: Maintaining priorities, transforming practice. 45. Van Kauwenbergh, S. J. (2010). World phosphate rock reserves and resources (p. 48). Muscle Shoals: IFDC. 46. Vietnam’s Low-tech Food System Takes Advantage of Decay. Aaron Vansintjan. February 23, 2017. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-02-23/vietnams-low-tech-food-system-takes-advantage-of-decay/ 47. Vishwakarma, K., Upadhyay, N., Kumar, N., Tripathi, D. K., Chauhan, D. K., Sharma, S., & Sahi, S. (2018). Potential Applications and Avenues of Nanotechnology in Sustainable Agriculture. In Nanomaterials in Plants, Algae, and Microorganisms (pp. 473-500). Academic Press. 48. von Braun, J., & Tadesse, G. (2012). Global food price volatility and spikes: an overview of costs, causes, and solutions. ZEF-Discussion Papers on Development Policy, (161). 49. What is parity? (And why you should care). Eric Holt-Giménez, Heidi Kleiner. May 20, 2019. Retrieved from https://foodfirst.org/what-is-parity-and-why-you-should-care/ 50. Large-scale family farms represent 2.8% of farms, but encompass 39.0% of the value of production. Large-scale family farms are defined as those with$1 million or more in gross cash farm income (GCFI) ("a measure of the farm's revenue that includes sales of crops and livestock, government payments, and other farm-related income, including fees from production contracts"). This includes farms with with a GCFI of $5 million or more (0.3% of all US farms). 2% of farms (and 13% of production) are "nonfamily farms" which include "partnerships of unrelated partners, closely held nonfamily corporations, farms with a hired operator unrelated to the owners, and (relatively few) publicly held corporations.". 15% of these nonfamily farms (0.3% of all farms) have a GCFI of$1 million or more and account for 89% of the nonfamily farm production (so 11.6% of total production). So altogether, farms with a GCFI of $1 million or more account for 11.6+39=50.6% of the value of all production while representing only 2.8+0.3=3.1% of all farms.8 51. At the time of writing (November 28, 2019), the price of corn is about$3.63/bushel, and an 18oz box of corn flakes is $3.28 at Walmart. In the ingredients list for corn flakes, milled corn is listed as the first ingredient, followed by sugar; there are 4g of added sugar per serving size and 12 servings in an 18oz box, so 48g (1.7oz) added sugar total, so we can assume the corn contents are closer to 18 - 1.7 = 16.3oz. One bushel of corn is 56lbs or 896oz. 16.3/896 * 3.63 means a 18oz box of corn flakes has about 6.6c of corn in it. The price of sugar is today is$0.13/lb, so 1.7oz of sugar costs 1.4c. The main ingredients then cost 8 cents, representing 2.4% of the retail price (there is intermediary processing, i.e. corn milling, but safe to say this does not introduce enough of a price increase to explain the remaining retail price).

52. There is some dispute over the relationship between farmer suicides and the dynamics described here, but these tend to ignore that many farmers, when struggling with income, take on other work and thus may not be categorized as farmers in data21. Similarly, that the most common stated reasons for suicide are not economic, but personal or family related, neglects that economic problems may manifest as these other types of problems236. It fails to examine the relational aspects that might be driving suicides—if someone is dependent on someone who farms for the primary income, but may do other work (this might be true for the "housewives" category, who fall under the "non-working population" definition by the Census of India), their suicide may relate to agriculture work even if they themselves do not fall under that category. Even for those instances where agrarian suicide is not directly attributed to financial reasons (e.g. alcoholism), that still may be the indirect cause.

53. The Mysteries of Fertilizer. Michael Tortorello. April 14, 2009. https://topics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/the-mysteries-of-fertilizer/

54. Smil, V. (2004). Enriching the earth: Fritz Haber, Carl Bosch, and the transformation of world food production. MIT press.

55. Badgley, C., Moghtader, J., Quintero, E., Zakem, E., Chappell, M. J., Aviles-Vazquez, K., ... & Perfecto, I. (2007). Organic agriculture and the global food supply. Renewable agriculture and food systems, 22(2), 86-108.

56. Allen, R. C. (2008). The nitrogen hypothesis and the English agricultural revolution: A biological analysis. The Journal of Economic History, 68(1), 182-210.

57. Ladha, J. K., Pathak, H., Krupnik, T. J., Six, J., & van Kessel, C. (2005). Efficiency of fertilizer nitrogen in cereal production: retrospects and prospects. Advances in agronomy, 87, 85-156.

58. Dawson, C. J., & Hilton, J. (2011). Fertiliser availability in a resource-limited world: Production and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus. Food Policy, 36, S14-S22.

59. Tilman, D., Cassman, K. G., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R., & Polasky, S. (2002). Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature, 418(6898), 671.

60. Lu, C. C., & Tian, H. (2017). Global nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use for agriculture production in the past half century: shifted hot spots and nutrient imbalance. Earth System Science Data, 9, 181.

61. Farming’s growing problem. Joe Wertz. January 22, 2020. Retrieved from https://publicintegrity.org/environment/unintended-consequences-farming-fertilizer-climate-health-water-nitrogen/

62. Díaz, S., Settele, J., Brondízio, E., Ngo, H., Guèze, M., Agard, J., ... & Chan, K. (2019). Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

63. Stewart, W. M., Dibb, D. W., Johnston, A. E., & Smyth, T. J. (2005). The contribution of commercial fertilizer nutrients to food production. Agronomy Journal, 97(1), 1-6.

64. Calabi-Floody, M., Medina, J., Rumpel, C., Condron, L. M., Hernandez, M., Dumont, M., & de la Luz Mora, M. (2018). Smart fertilizers as a strategy for sustainable agriculture. In Advances in Agronomy (Vol. 147, pp. 119-157). Academic Press.

65. Clark, M., & Tilman, D. (2017). Comparative analysis of environmental impacts of agricultural production systems, agricultural input efficiency, and food choice. Environmental Research Letters, 12(6), 064016.

66. Mulvaney, R. L., Khan, S. A., & Ellsworth, T. R. (2009). Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers deplete soil nitrogen: a global dilemma for sustainable cereal production. Journal of environmental quality, 38(6), 2295-2314.

67. Van Ginkel, S. W., Igou, T., & Chen, Y. (2017). Energy, water and nutrient impacts of California-grown vegetables compared to controlled environmental agriculture systems in Atlanta, GA. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 122, 319-325.

68. Cordell, D., Drangert, J. O., & White, S. (2009). The story of phosphorus: global food security and food for thought. Global environmental change, 19(2), 292-305.

69. Cordell, D., Turner, A., & Chong, J. (2015). The hidden cost of phosphate fertilizers: mapping multi-stakeholder supply chain risks and impacts from mine to fork. Global Change, Peace & Security, 27(3), 323-343.

70. Campbell, B. M., Beare, D. J., Bennett, E. M., Hall-Spencer, J. M., Ingram, J. S., Jaramillo, F., ... & Shindell, D. (2017). Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries. Ecology and Society, 22(4).

71. Good, A. G., & Beatty, P. H. (2011). Fertilizing nature: a tragedy of excess in the commons. PLoS biology, 9(8), e1001124.

72. Ifft, J., & Jodlowski, M. (2018). Federal crop insurance participation and adoption of sustainable production practices by US corn farms (No. 2133-2018-5427).

74. Subsidizing Waste: How Inefficient US Farm Policy Costs Taxpayers, Businesses, and Farmers Billions. Union of Concerned Scientists. August 2016.

75. P For Plunder: Morocco’s exports of phosphates from occupied Western Sahara. Western Sahara Resource Watch. April 2019. https://www.wsrw.org/files/dated/2019-04-08/pforplunder2019_web.pdf

76. Mehmood, T., Chaudhry, M. M., Tufail, M., & Irfan, N. (2009). Heavy metal pollution from phosphate rock used for the production of fertilizer in Pakistan. Microchemical Journal, 91(1), 94-99.

77. Shcherbak, I., Millar, N., & Robertson, G. P. (2014). Global metaanalysis of the nonlinear response of soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions to fertilizer nitrogen. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(25), 9199-9204.

78. Giraldo, O. F. (2019). Political ecology of agriculture: agroecology and post-development. Springer.

79. How U.S. Agricultural Subsidies Degrade Land and Soil. July 2019. https://foodtank.com/news/2019/07/opinion-how-us-agricultural-subsidies-degrade-land-and-soil/

80. Reay, D. S., Dentener, F., Smith, P., Grace, J., & Feely, R. A. (2008). Global nitrogen deposition and carbon sinks. Nature Geoscience, 1(7), 430.

81. Gattinger, A., Muller, A., Haeni, M., Skinner, C., Fliessbach, A., Buchmann, N., ... & Niggli, U. (2012). Enhanced top soil carbon stocks under organic farming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(44), 18226-18231.

82. Röös, E., Mie, A., Wivstad, M., Salomon, E., Johansson, B., Gunnarsson, S., ... & Watson, C. A. (2018). Risks and opportunities of increasing yields in organic farming. A review. Agronomy for sustainable development, 38(2), 14.

83. Sheriff, G. (2005). Efficient waste? Why farmers over-apply nutrients and the implications for policy design. Review of Agricultural Economics, 27(4), 542-557.

84. Syers, J. K., Johnston, A. E., & Curtin, D. (2008). Efficiency of soil and fertilizer phosphorus use. FAO Fertilizer and plant nutrition bulletin, 18(108).

85. Policy Brief: Fertilizer Recommendations and In-kind Subsidies Increase Uptake and Yields among Maize Farmers in Mexico. Aprajit Mahajan, Xavier Gine, Carolina Corral, Enrique Seira. https://basis.ucdavis.edu/publication/policy-brief-fertilizer-recommendations-and-kind-subsidies-increase-uptake-and-yields

86. USDA Squeezes the Food Industry with Outdated Subsidies. Mark A Perelman. May 14, 2018. Retrieved from https://cbey.yale.edu/our-stories/usda-squeezes-the-food-industry-with-outdated-subsidies

87. Weber, J. G., Key, N., & O’Donoghue, E. (2016). Does federal crop insurance make environmental externalities from agriculture worse?. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 3(3), 707-742.

88. Crop insurance is good for farmers, but not always for the environment. Don Fullerton, Julian Reif, Megan Konar, Tatyana Deryugina. June 29, 2018. https://theconversation.com/crop-insurance-is-good-for-farmers-but-not-always-for-the-environment-96841

89. How Does the Farm Bill Affect Everyday Americans? Elliott Negin, Ricardo Salvador. March 1, 2018. https://blog.ucsusa.org/elliott-negin/farm-bill-and-everyday-americans

90. Fact Book 2018. Nutrien. 2018.

91. Fertilizer Plants Spring Up to Take Advantage of U.S.’s Cheap Natural Gas. Celeste LeCompte. April 25, 2013. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fertilizer-plants-grow-thanks-to-cheap-natural-gas/

92. Zhou, X., Passow, F. H., Rudek, J., von Fisher, J. C., Hamburg, S. P., & Albertson, J. D. (2019). Estimation of methane emissions from the US ammonia fertilizer industry using a mobile sensing approach. Elem Sci Anth, 7(1).

93. International Fertilizer Industry Association. (2001). Environmental aspects of phosphate and potash mining. UNEP.

94. Cañedo-Argüelles, M., Brucet, S., Carrasco, S., Flor-Arnau, N., Ordeix, M., Ponsá, S., & Coring, E. (2017). Effects of potash mining on river ecosystems: An experimental study. Environmental pollution, 224, 759-770.

95. Amann, A., Zoboli, O., Krampe, J., Rechberger, H., Zessner, M., & Egle, L. (2018). Environmental impacts of phosphorus recovery from municipal wastewater. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 130, 127-139.

96. World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources. S. Van Kauwenbergh. IFDC. November 2010. http://www.firt.org/sites/default/files/SteveVanKauwenbergh_World_Phosphate_Rock_Reserve.pdf

97. Foster, J. B. (1999). Marx's theory of metabolic rift: Classical foundations for environmental sociology. American journal of sociology, 105(2), 366-405.

98. Cushman, G. T. (2013). Guano and the opening of the Pacific world: a global ecological history. Cambridge University Press.

99. Clark, B., & Foster, J. B. (2009). Ecological imperialism and the global metabolic rift: Unequal exchange and the guano/nitrates trade. International Journal of Comparative Sociology, 50(3-4), 311-334.

100. Jackson, S. (2016). The phosphate archipelago: Imperial mining and global agriculture in French North Africa. Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook, 57(1), 187-214.

101. Edwards, J. B. (2014). Phosphate mining and the relocation of the Banabans to northern Fiji in 1945: Lessons for climate change-forced displacement. Journal de la Société des Océanistes, (138-139), 121-136.

102. Teaiwa, K. (2015). Ruining Pacific islands: Australia's phosphate imperialism. Australian Historical Studies, 46(3), 374-391.

103. Connell, J. (2006). Nauru: The first failed Pacific state?. The Round Table, 95(383), 47-63.

104. Camprubí, L. (2015). Resource geopolitics: Cold war technologies, global fertilizers, and the fate of Western Sahara. Technology and Culture, 56(3), 676-703.

105. Mineral Resource of the Month: Phosphate Rock, Stephen M. Jasinski (December 2, 2013) https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/mineral-resource-month-phosphate-rock

106. White, N. (2015). Conflict stalemate in Morocco and Western Sahara: Natural resources, legitimacy and political recognition. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 42(3), 339-357.

107. Jensen, G. (2013). War and insurgency in the Western Sahara. Current Politics and Economics of Africa, 6(4), 339.

108. UN must monitor human rights in Western Sahara and Sahrawi refugee camps. Amnesty International. April 26, 2016. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/04/un-must-monitor-human-rights-in-western-sahara-and-sahrawi-refugee-camps/

109. UN must monitor human rights in Western Sahara and Sahrawi refugee camps. Amnesty International. April 26, 2019. https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/MDE2902662019ENGLISH.pdf

110. Morocco/Western Sahara: Investigate brutal crackdown on Sahrawi protesters. Amnesty International. August 1, 2019. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/08/morocco-western-sahara-investigate-brutal-crackdown-on-sahrawi-protesters/

111. Has another cargo of fishmeal from Western Sahara arrived in Germany? Western Sahara Resource Watch. May 2, 2019. Retrieved from https://www.wsrw.org/a105x4505

112. Rowe, H., Withers, P. J., Baas, P., Chan, N. I., Doody, D., Holiman, J., ... & Sharpley, A. N. (2016). Integrating legacy soil phosphorus into sustainable nutrient management strategies for future food, bioenergy and water security. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 104(3), 393-412.

113. Ponisio, L. C., M'Gonigle, L. K., Mace, K. C., Palomino, J., de Valpine, P., & Kremen, C. (2015). Diversification practices reduce organic to conventional yield gap. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 282(1799), 20141396.

114. Saeid, A., & Chojnacka, K. (2019). Fertlizers: Need for new strategies. In Organic Farming (pp. 91-116). Woodhead Publishing.

115. Frink, C. R., Waggoner, P. E., & Ausubel, J. H. (1999). Nitrogen fertilizer: retrospect and prospect. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(4), 1175-1180.

116. Olesen, J. E., Jørgensen, L. N., Petersen, J., & Mortensen, J. V. (2003). Effects of rate and timing of nitrogen fertilizer on disease control by fungicides in winter wheat. 1. Grain yield and foliar disease control. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 140(1), 1-13.

117. Lu, Z. X., Yu, X. P., Heong, K. L., & Cui, H. U. (2007). Effect of nitrogen fertilizer on herbivores and its stimulation to major insect pests in rice. Rice Science, 14(1), 56-66.

118. Altieri, M. A., & Nicholls, C. I. (2003). Soil fertility management and insect pests: harmonizing soil and plant health in agroecosystems. Soil and Tillage Research, 72(2), 203-211.

119. Chau, L. M., & Heong, K. L. (2005). Effects of organic fertilizers on insect pest and diseases of rice. Omonrice, 13, 26-33.

120. Do industrial agricultural methods actually yield more food per acre than organic ones? Nathanael Johnson. October 14, 2015. https://grist.org/food/do-industrial-agricultural-methods-actually-yield-more-food-per-acre-than-organic-ones/

121. Seufert, V., & Ramankutty, N. (2017). Many shades of gray—The context-dependent performance of organic agriculture. Science advances, 3(3), e1602638.

122. Is organic really better for the environment than conventional agriculture? Hannah Ritchie. October 19, 2017. https://ourworldindata.org/is-organic-agriculture-better-for-the-environment

123. Muller, A., Schader, C., Scialabba, N. E. H., Brüggemann, J., Isensee, A., Erb, K. H., ... & Niggli, U. (2017). Strategies for feeding the world more sustainably with organic agriculture. Nature communications, 8(1), 1290.

124. Smith, Laurence G.; Kirk, Guy J. D.; Jones, Philip J.; Williams, Adrian G. (2019): The greenhouse gas impacts of converting food production in England and Wales to organic methods. In Nat Commun 10 (1), pp. 1–10. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12622-7.

125. van der Werf, H. M., Knudsen, M. T., & Cederberg, C. (2020). Towards better representation of organic agriculture in life cycle assessment. Nature Sustainability, 1-7.

126. Kozai, T., & Niu, G. (2016). Conclusions: Resource-Saving and Resource-Consuming Characteristics of PFALs. In Plant Factory (pp. 395-399). Academic Press.

127. Mohareb, E., Heller, M., Novak, P., Goldstein, B., Fonoll, X., & Raskin, L. (2017). Considerations for reducing food system energy demand while scaling up urban agriculture. Environmental Research Letters, 12(12), 125004.

128. Sanjuan-Delmás, D., Llorach-Massana, P., Nadal, A., Ercilla-Montserrat, M., Muñoz, P., Montero, J. I., ... & Rieradevall, J. (2018). Environmental assessment of an integrated rooftop greenhouse for food production in cities. Journal of cleaner production, 177, 326-337.

129. Edmondson, J. L., Cunningham, H., Tingley, D. O. D., Dobson, M. C., Grafius, D. R., Leake, J. R., ... & Stovin, V. (2020). The hidden potential of urban horticulture. Nature Food, 1(3), 155-159.

130. BENIS, K., GOMES, R., VICENTE, R., FERRAO, P., & FERNANDEZ, J. (2015). Rooftop greenhouses: LCA and energy simulation. In Proceedings of International Conference CISBAT 2015 Future Buildings and Districts Sustainability from Nano to Urban Scale (No. CONF, pp. 95-100). LESO-PB, EPFL.

131. Muñoz, P., Antón, A., Nuñez, M., Paranjpe, A., Ariño, J., Castells, X., ... & Rieradevall, J. (2007, October). Comparing the environmental impacts of greenhouse versus open-field tomato production in the Mediterranean region. In International Symposium on High Technology for Greenhouse System Management: Greensys2007 801 (pp. 1591-1596).

132. El-Essawy, H., Nasr, P., & Sewilam, H. (2019). Aquaponics: a sustainable alternative to conventional agriculture in Egypt–a pilot scale investigation. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(16), 15872-15883.

133. Russo, G., & Scarascia Mugnozza, G. (2004, September). LCA methodology applied to various typology of greenhouses. In International Conference on Sustainable Greenhouse Systems-Greensys2004 691 (pp. 837-844).

134. The How-To of Organic Hydroponics. Lynette Morgan. January 30, 2014. https://www.maximumyield.com/the-how-to-of-organic-hydroponics/2/1299

135. Vertical farming and hydroponics on the spectrum of sustainability. Alicia Miller. April 5, 2018. Retrieved from https://sustainablefoodtrust.org/articles/vertical-farming-and-hydroponics-on-the-spectrum-of-sustainability/

136. Romeo, D., Vea, E. B., & Thomsen, M. (2018). Environmental impacts of urban hydroponics in Europe: a case study in Lyon. Procedia CIRP, 69, 540-545.

137. Benke, K., & Tomkins, B. (2017). Future food-production systems: vertical farming and controlled-environment agriculture. Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy, 13(1), 13-26.

138. Banerjee, C., & Adenaeuer, L. (2014). Up, up and away! The economics of vertical farming. Journal of Agricultural Studies, 2(1), 40-60.

139. Graamans, L., Baeza, E., Van Den Dobbelsteen, A., Tsafaras, I., & Stanghellini, C. (2018). Plant factories versus greenhouses: Comparison of resource use efficiency. Agricultural Systems, 160, 31-43.

140. Schrammel, E. (2015). A cost-benefit analysis of hydroponic wastewater treatment in Sweden.

141. Razon, L. F. (2015). Is nitrogen fixation (once again) “vital to the progress of civilized humanity”?. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 17(2), 301-307.

142. The way we make fertilizer sucks, but we haven’t had a good alternative … until now. Nathanael Johnson. April 29, 2016. https://grist.org/article/the-way-we-make-fertilizer-sucks-but-we-havent-had-a-good-alternative-until-now/

143. Brown, K. A., Harris, D. F., Wilker, M. B., Rasmussen, A., Khadka, N., Hamby, H., ... & King, P. W. (2016). Light-driven dinitrogen reduction catalyzed by a CdS: nitrogenase MoFe protein biohybrid. Science, 352(6284), 448-450.

144. A sustainable, energy-saving way to make the key ingredient in fertilizers. Xiaofeng Feng. May 23, 2018. https://theconversation.com/a-sustainable-energy-saving-way-to-make-the-key-ingredient-in-fertilizers-96693

145. Comer, B. M., Fuentes, P., Dimkpa, C. O., Liu, Y. H., Fernandez, C. A., Arora, P., ... & Medford, A. J. (2019). Prospects and challenges for solar fertilizers. Joule, 3(7), 1578-1605.

146. Martín, A. J., & Pérez-Ramírez, J. (2019). Heading to distributed electrocatalytic conversion of small abundant molecules into fuels, chemicals, and fertilizers. Joule, 3(11), 2602-2621.

147. The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy. The Fertilizer Institute. https://kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf

148. Renewable Ammonia from Biomass: SynGest, BioNitrogen, Agrebon. Trevor Brown. April 24, 2013. Retrieved from https://nh3fuelassociation.org/2013/04/24/ammonia-from-biomass/

149. BioNitrogen in bankruptcy. Trevor Brown. November 6, 2015. Retrieved from https://ammoniaindustry.com/bionitrogen-in-bankruptcy/

150. Casselton, ND — Agrebon. Trevor Brown. November 1, 2013. Retrieved from https://ammoniaindustry.com/casselton-nd-agrebon/

151. Randall, D. G., & Naidoo, V. (2018). Urine: The liquid gold of wastewater. Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering, 6(2), 2627-2635.

152. Gone Tomorrow: The Hidden Life of Garbage. Heather Rogers. 2005.

153. Alexander, C., Gregson, N., & Gille, Z. (2013). Food waste. The handbook of food research, 1, 471-483.

154. Transforming Food Waste into Plant-Based Technologies: Re-Nuble. September 3, 2019. Retrieved from https://www.nycfoodpolicy.org/transforming-food-waste-into-plant-based-technologies-re-nuble/

155. Tarayre, C., De Clercq, L., Charlier, R., Michels, E., Meers, E., Camargo-Valero, M., & Delvigne, F. (2016). New perspectives for the design of sustainable bioprocesses for phosphorus recovery from waste. Bioresource Technology, 206, 264-274.

156. Mehta, C. M., Hunter, M. N., Leong, G., & Batstone, D. J. (2018). The value of wastewater derived struvite as a source of phosphorus fertilizer. CLEAN–Soil, Air, Water, 46(7), 1700027.

157. Chan, K. Y., & Xu, Z. (2012). Biochar: nutrient properties and their enhancement. In Biochar for environmental management (pp. 99-116). Routledge.

158. Rorat, A., & Vandenbulcke, F. (2019). Earthworms converting domestic and food industry wastes into biofertilizer. In Industrial and Municipal Sludge (pp. 83-106). Butterworth-Heinemann.

159. Hribar, C. (2010). Understanding concentrated animal feeding operations and their impact on communities.

160. Mohammadi, K., & Sohrabi, Y. (2012). Bacterial biofertilizers for sustainable crop production: a review. J Agric Biol Sci, 7, 307-316.

161. Death by fertilizer. Nathanael Johnson. October 2, 2018. https://grist.org/article/billionaires-and-bacteria-are-racing-to-save-us-from-death-by-fertilizer/

162. Backer, R., Rokem, J. S., Ilangumaran, G., Lamont, J., Praslickova, D., Ricci, E., ... & Smith, D. L. (2018). Plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria: context, mechanisms of action, and roadmap to commercialization of biostimulants for sustainable agriculture. Frontiers in plant science, 9.

163. Suthar, H., Hingurao, K., Vaghashiya, J., & Parmar, J. (2017). Fermentation: A Process for Biofertilizer Production. In Microorganisms for Green Revolution (pp. 229-252). Springer, Singapore.

164. Kumar, J., Singh, D., Tyagi, M. B., & Kumar, A. (2019). Cyanobacteria: Applications in Biotechnology. In Cyanobacteria (pp. 327-346). Academic Press.

165. Replacing fertilizer with plant probiotics could slash greenhouse gases. October 2, 2018. https://www.technologyreview.com/f/612223/forget-fertilizer-this-startup-aims-to-slash-greenhouse-gases-with-plant/

166. Bayer and Ginkgo Bioworks Unveil Joint Venture, Joyn Bio, and Establish Operations in Boston and West Sacramento. March 20, 2018. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bayer-and-ginkgo-bioworks-unveil-joint-venture-joyn-bio-and-establish-operations-in-boston-and-west-sacramento-300616544.html

167. Singh, V. K., Singh, M., Singh, S. K., Kumar, C., & Kumar, A. (2019). Sustainable Agricultural Practices Using Beneficial Fungi Under Changing Climate Scenario. In Climate Change and Agricultural Ecosystems (pp. 25-42). Woodhead Publishing.

168. Recipe for Success: Brew Your Own Biofertilizer. Anna Birn. January 30, 2019. https://smallfarms.cornell.edu/2019/01/recipe-for-success-brew-your-own-biofertilizer/

169. Palma, I. P., Toral, J. N., Vázquez, M. R. P., Fuentes, N. F., & Hernández, F. G. (2015). Historical changes in the process of agricultural development in Cuba. Journal of Cleaner Production, 96, 77-84.

171. Nutrien Is Quietly Positioning Itself for the Future of Agriculture. Maxx Chatsko. April 14, 2019. https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/14/nutrien-is-quietly-positioning-itself-for-the-futu.aspx

172. Producción de biol SUPERMAGRO. Nelly Aliaga. http://www.agrolalibertad.gob.pe/sites/default/files/Manual_de__Bioles_rina.pdf

173. Canter, C. E., Qin, Z., Cai, H., Dunn, J. B., Wang, M., & Scott, D. A. (2017). Fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, including soil carbon effects, of producing agriculture and forestry feedstocks. In: Efroymson, RA; Langholtz, MH; Johnson, KE; Stokes, BJ, eds. 2016 billion-ton report: Advancing domestic resources for a thriving bioeconomy. Volume 2: Environmental sustainability effects of select scenarios from volume 1. ORNL/TM-2016/727. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory: 85-137., 2017, 85-137.

174. Shaw, A., & Wilson, K. (2020). The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the necro-populationism of ‘climate-smart’ agriculture. Gender, Place & Culture, 27(3), 370-393.

175. Food waste within food supply chains: quantification and potential for change

176. Stenmarck, Â., Jensen, C., Quested, T., Moates, G., Buksti, M., Cseh, B., ... & Scherhaufer, S. (2016). Estimates of European food waste levels. IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.

177. Cloke, J. (2013). Empires of waste and the food security meme. Geography Compass, 7(9), 622-636.

178. Cuéllar, A. D., & Webber, M. E. (2010). Wasted food, wasted energy: the embedded energy in food waste in the United States. Environmental science & technology, 44(16), 6464-6469.

179. Quested, T. E., Marsh, E., Stunell, D., & Parry, A. D. (2013). Spaghetti soup: The complex world of food waste behaviours. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 79, 43-51.

180. Gustavsson, J., Cederberg, C., Sonesson, U., Van Otterdijk, R., & Meybeck, A. (2011). Global food losses and food waste (pp. 1-38). Rome: FAO.

181. Bovay, J., & Zhang, W. (2019). A Century of Profligacy? The Measurement and Evolution of Food Waste. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 1-35.

182. Gille, Z. (2012). From risk to waste: global food waste regimes. The Sociological Review, 60, 27-46.

183. Williams, H., Wikström, F., Otterbring, T., Löfgren, M., & Gustafsson, A. (2012). Reasons for household food waste with special attention to packaging. Journal of cleaner production, 24, 141-148.

184. French Food Waste Law Changing How Grocery Stores Approach Excess Food. Eleanor Beardsley. February 24, 2018. https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/02/24/586579455/french-food-waste-law-changing-how-grocery-stores-approach-excess-food

185. Fernandez, M., Williams, J., Figueroa, G., Lovelace, G. G., Machado, M., Vasquez, L., ... & Aguilar, F. F. (2018). New opportunities, new challenges: Harnessing Cuba’s advances in agroecology and sustainable agriculture in the context of changing relations with the United States. Elem Sci Anth, 6(1).

186. McMichael, P. (2016). Commentary: Food regime for thought. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 43(3), 648-670.

187. Mazzarino, T. (2012). Policy Alternatives for Federal Agricultural Subsidies: Fertilization Protocols and Their Effects on Crop Yields, Sustainability, and Food Justice.

188. A Farmer Living Wage. National Family Farm Coalition. Retrieved from https://nffc.net/what-we-do/farmer-living-wage/

190. Fair Prices for Farmers. National Family Farm Coalition. Retrieved from https://nffc.net/what-we-do/fair-prices-for-farmers/

191. Friedmann, H. (1993). The political economy of food: a global crisis. New left review, (197), 29-57.

192. The Key to Saving Family Farms Is in the Soil. David R. Montgomery. October 19, 2019. https://www.ecowatch.com/family-farms-regenerative-farming-practices-2641025788.html

193. Large Loans Drive Further Increases in Farm Lending. Nathan Kauffman, Ty Kreitman. July 18, 2019. https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/indicatorsdata/agfinancedatabook/articles/2019/7-18-19/ag-finance-dbk-7-18-2019

195. Miller, C., & Jones, L. (2010). Agricultural value chain finance: Tools and lessons. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and Practical Action Pub..

196. Fertilizer dealer Nutrien aims to triple U.S. farm loans, guided by ex-Walmart executive. Rod Nickel. May 31, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nutrien-farming-loans-exclusive/exclsuive-fertilizer-dealer-nutrien-aims-to-triple-u-s-farm-loans-guided-by-ex-walmart-executive-idUSKCN1T12AL

197. Farm loan delinquencies highest in 9 years as prices slump. Roxana Hegeman. February 28, 2019. https://www.apnews.com/7881b72df9aa41c28900acba09558e5e

198. No Quick Subsidies Fix for Food System. Wenonah Hauter. March 31, 2011. https://civileats.com/2011/03/31/no-quick-subsidies-fix-for-food-system/

199. Starmer, E., & Wise, T. A. (2007). Feeding at the Trough: Industrial Livestock Firms Saved \$35 Billion from Low Feed Prices. GDAE Policy Brief, (07-03).

200. National Farmers Union (Canada). (2005). The farm crisis & corporate profits: A report. Saskatoon, Sask.: National Farmers Union.

201. Farmworkers’ Low Wage Rates Have Risen Modestly; Now Congress May Pass a Law to Lower Them. Madeline Ramey. September 19, 2018. Retrieved from https://www.farmworkerjustice.org/fj-blog/2018/09/farmworkers-low-wage-rates-have-risen-modestly-now-congress-may-pass-law-lower-them

202. Justice, F. (2011). No way to treat a guest: why the H-2A agricultural visa program fails US and foreign workers. Washington, DC: Farmworker Justice, 1-44.

203. Magdoff, F. (2013). Twenty-first-century land grabs: Accumulation by agricultural dispossession. Monthly Review, 65(6), 1.

204. Blaikie, P. (1985). The political economy of soil erosion in developing countries. Routledge.

205. Our crazy farm subsidies, explained. Amelia Urry. April 20, 2015. Retrieved from https://grist.org/food/our-crazy-farm-subsidies-explained/

206. 2018 Farm Bill Drilldown: Commodity Programs and Crop Insurance. National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition. December 14, 2018. https://sustainableagriculture.net/blog/2018-farm-bill-commodity-subsidies-crop-insurance/

207. Rosset, P. M., & Altieri, M. A. (1997). Agroecology versus input substitution: a fundamental contradiction of sustainable agriculture. Society & Natural Resources, 10(3), 283-295.

208. Holt-Giménez, E., & Altieri, M. A. (2013). Agroecology, food sovereignty, and the new green revolution. Agroecology and sustainable Food systems, 37(1), 90-102.

209. Ng, F., & Aksoy, M. A. (2008). Who are the net food importing countries?. The World Bank.

210. Shaw, D. J. (2007). World food security: A History since 1945.

211. Genetic Resources Action International, & GRAIN. (2012). The great food robbery: how corporations control food, grab land and destroy the climate. Fahamu/Pambazuka.

212. Zimbabwe’s food security in crisis—but not for reasons you might think. Anna Brazier. December 17, 2019. Retrieved from https://africasacountry.com/2019/12/zimbabwes-food-security-in-crisis-but-not-for-reasons-you-might-think/

213. Kallummal, M., Mendiratta, D., & Sangita, S. (2018). US Import Refusals of Agricultural Products and Their Impact on the Participation of Indian Firms. Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, 7(1), 78-104.

214. Barkin, D. (2005). Wealth, poverty and sustainable development (No. 0506003). University Library of Munich, Germany.

215. The fight for the future of food. Joeva Rock. December 18, 2019. Retrieved from https://africasacountry.com/2019/12/the-fight-for-the-future-of-food

216. Barkin, D. (2002). The reconstruction of a modern Mexican peasantry. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 30(1), 73-90.

217. Barkin, D. (1987). The end to food self-sufficiency in Mexico. Latin American Perspectives, 14(3), 271-297.

218. de Graaff, J., Kessler, A., & Nibbering, J. W. (2011). Agriculture and food security in selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: diversity in trends and opportunities. Food Security, 3(2), 195-213.

219. How Farm Policy and Big Ag Impact Farmers in the U.S. and Abroad. Eva Perroni, Timothy Wise. March 7, 2019. https://civileats.com/2019/03/07/how-farm-policy-and-big-ag-impact-farmers-in-the-u-s-and-abroad/

220. Crawford, E. W., Jayne, T. S., & Kelly, V. A. (2005). Alternative approaches for promoting fertilizer use in africa, with emphasis on the role of subsidies (No. 1095-2016-88224).

221. Kiage, L. M. (2013). Perspectives on the assumed causes of land degradation in the rangelands of Sub-Saharan Africa. Progress in Physical Geography, 37(5), 664-684.

222. Small farmers feel left out amid a boom in African fertilizer production. Rupa Shenoy. January 22, 2020. Retrieved from https://grist.org/food/small-farmers-feel-left-out-amid-a-boom-in-african-fertilizer-production/

223. Subsidized Fertilizer: The Answer to Africa's Food Crisis? Brendan Borrell. June 18, 2009. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/subsidized-fertilizer-africa/

224. Morgan, S. N., Mason, N. M., Levine, N. K., & Zulu-Mbata, O. (2019). Dis-incentivizing sustainable intensification? The case of Zambia’s maize-fertilizer subsidy program. World Development, 122, 54-69.

225. Malawi’s fertilizer subsidies are not a panacea for farmer households. Adam Komarek, Siwa Msangi. May 12, 2017. http://www.ifpri.org/blog/malawis-fertilizer-subsidies-are-not-panacea-farmer-households

226. Jayne, T. S., Mason, N. M., Burke, W. J., & Ariga, J. (2018). Taking stock of Africa’s second-generation agricultural input subsidy programs. Food Policy, 75, 1-14.

227. Gilbert, N., Gewin, V., Tollefson, J., Sachs, J., & Potrykus, I. (2010). How to feed a hungry world. Nature, 466, 531-532.

228. Biel, R. A. (2016). Sustainable Food Systems (pp. 74-89). UCL press.

229. Wolford, W. (2019). The colonial roots of agricultural modernization in Mozambique: the role of research from Portugal to ProSavana. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 1-20.

230. Paudel, J., & Crago, C. L. (2017). Fertilizer Subsidy and Agricultural Productivity: Empirical Evidence from Nepal.

231. 'Green Revolution' Trapping India's Farmers In Debt. Daniel Zwerdling. April 19, 2009. https://www.npr.org/2009/04/14/102944731/green-revolution-trapping-indias-farmers-in-debt

232. Kalkuhl, M., Von Braun, J., & Torero, M. (Eds.). (2016). Food price volatility and its implications for food security and policy: Volatile and Extreme Food Prices, Food Security, and Policy: An Overview. Springer Open.

233. Climate Change and Rising Food Prices Heightened Arab Spring. Ines Perez. March 4, 2013. Retrieved from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-and-rising-food-prices-heightened-arab-spring/

234. Simon Reardon, J. A., & Pérez, R. A. (2010). Agroecology and the development of indicators of food sovereignty in Cuban food systems. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture, 34(8), 907-922.

235. Nair, S. R. Agrarian Suicides in India: Myth and Reality. Development Policy Review.

236. One of Africa’s Most Fertile Lands Is Struggling to Feed Its Own People. Peter Schwartzstein. April 2, 2019. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2019-sudan-nile-land-farming/

237. Mann, H., & Smaller, C. (2010). Foreign land purchases for agriculture: What impact on sustainable development. Sustainable development innovation briefs, 8, 1-8.

239. Henderson, C. (2020). Land grabs reexamined: Gulf Arab agro-commodity chains and spaces of extraction. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 0308518X20956657.

240. The Great Land Robbery. Vann R. Newkirk II. September 2019. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/09/this-land-was-our-land/594742/

241. Ouma, S. (2016). From financialization to operations of capital: Historicizing and disentangling the finance–farmland-nexus. Geoforum, 72, 82-93.

242. Puel, J. M. (2012). Are Sovereign Wealth Funds’ Investments in Agriculture Political?. Études rurales, (2), 161-176.

243. From Public Good to Private Profit: The Shifting Discourse on Land Grabbing. Sarika Mathur. September 6, 2011. Retrieved from https://www.globalpolicy.org/world-hunger/land-ownership-and-hunger/50685-from-public-good-to-private-profit-the-shifting-discourse-on-land-grabbing.html?itemid=id#1292

244. Cotula, L., Dyer, N., & Vermeulen, S. (2008). Bioenergy and land tenure: The implications of Biofuels for land tenure and land policy. International Institute for Environment and Development, London.

245. Foreign investment in U.S. farmland on the rise. Johnathan Hettinger, Robert Holly, Jelter Meers. June 22, 2017. https://investigatemidwest.org/2017/06/22/foreign-investment-into-u-s-farmland-on-the-rise/

247. Rosegrant, M. W. (2008). Biofuels and grain prices: impacts and policy responses (pp. 1-4). Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

248. Koizumi, T. (2015). Biofuels and food security. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 829-841.

249. Tomei, J., & Helliwell, R. (2016). Food versus fuel? Going beyond biofuels. Land use policy, 56, 320-326.

250. Big Food is Betting on Regenerative Agriculture to Thwart Climate Change. Gosia Wozniacka. October 29, 2019. Retrieved from https://civileats.com/2019/10/29/big-food-is-betting-on-regenerative-agriculture-to-thwart-climate-change/

251. Agrarian Dreams: The Paradox of Organic Farming in California. Julie Guthman. 2004.

252. 'Junk Agroecology': The corporate capture of agroecology for a partial ecological transition without social justice. April 2020. Transnational Institute, Friends of the Earth International, Crocevia.

253. Ajl, M. (2014). The hypertrophic city versus the planet of fields. Implosions/Explosions: towards a study of planetary urbanization, 533-550.

254. Glover, J. D., Reganold, J. P., & Cox, C. M. (2012). Plant perennials to save Africa's soils. Nature, 489(7416), 359-361.

255. Ajayi, O. C., Place, F., Akinnifesi, F. K., & Sileshi, G. W. (2011). Agricultural success from Africa: the case of fertilizer tree systems in southern Africa (Malawi, Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe). International journal of agricultural sustainability, 9(1), 129-136.

256. George Washington Carver: Touching Infinity. Devyn Springer. February 21, 2020. Retrieved from https://wearyourvoicemag.com/identities/george-washington-carver-touching-infinity

257. De Schutter, O. (2010). Report Submitted by the Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food: Human Rigths Council Sixteenth Session: Agenda Item 3: Promotion and Protection of All Human Rights, Civil, Political, Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, Including the Right to Develop. United Nations (UN).

258. Contemporary agriculture: climate, capital, and cyborg ecology. Out of the Woods. Retrieved from https://libcom.org/blog/contemporary-agriculture-climate-capital-cyborg-ecology-17072015

259. Rosset, P. M., Machín Sosa, B., Roque Jaime, A. M., & Ávila Lozano, D. R. (2011). The Campesino-to-Campesino agroecology movement of ANAP in Cuba: social process methodology in the construction of sustainable peasant agriculture and food sovereignty. The Journal of peasant studies, 38(1), 161-191.

260. Ricciardi, V., Ramankutty, N., Mehrabi, Z., Jarvis, L., & Chookolingo, B. (2018). How much of the world's food do smallholders produce?. Global food security, 17, 64-72.

262. US academics feel the invisible hand of politicians and big agriculture. Kate Cox, Claire Brown. January 31, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/31/us-academics-feel-the-invisible-hand-of-politicians-and-big-agriculture

263. Mugwanya, N. (2019). Why agroecology is a dead end for Africa. Outlook on Agriculture, 48(2), 113-116.

264. The Oil We Eat: Following the Food Chain back to Iraq. Richard Manning. May 23, 2004. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2004-05-23/oil-we-eat-following-food-chain-back-iraq/

265. Madison, M. G. (1997). 'Potatoes Made of Oil': Eugene and Howard Odum and the Origins and Limits of American Agroecology. Environment and History, 3(2), 209-238.

267. How to Make Biomass Energy Sustainable Again. Kris De Decker. https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2020/09/how-to-make-biomass-energy-sustainable-again.html

268. Perennial Crops: New Hardware for Agriculture. The Land Institute. https://landinstitute.org/our-work/perennial-crops/

269. Eat Local: Cuba's Urban Gardens Raise Food on Zero Emissions. Max Ajl. January 27, 2009. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20090127/eat-local-cubas-urban-gardens-raise-food-zero-emissions

270. Altieri, M. A., & Funes-Monzote, F. R. (2012). The paradox of Cuban agriculture. Monthly Review, 63(8), 23-33.

272. Cuba faces squeeze on food production as US oil sanctions bite. Ed Augustin. March 18, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/cuba-food-production-us-oil-sanctions

273. The Environmental Situation in Cuba. People in Need. December 2015.

274. Piemonte, V., & Gironi, F. (2012). Bioplastics and GHGs saving: the land use change (LUC) emissions issue. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 34(21), 1995-2003.

275. Climate Change and Land: Summary for Policymakers. IPCC. 2019.

276. Pachauri, R. K., Allen, M. R., Barros, V. R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., ... & Dubash, N. K. (2014). Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (p. 151). IPCC.

277. Cochrane, L. (2011). Food security or food sovereignty: The case of land grabs. The Journal of Humanitarian Assistance, 5.

278. A new way to curb nitrogen pollution: Regulate fertilizer producers, not just farmers. David Kanter. January 20, 2019. https://www.salon.com/2019/01/20/a-new-way-to-curb-nitrogen-pollution-regulate-fertilizer-producers-not-just-farmers_partner/

279. Belavina, E. (2020). Grocery store density and food waste. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management.

280. Facilitate the Growth of Organic by Ending Subsidies for Chemical Inputs. Joelle Katto Andrighetto. October 10, 2018.

281. Hamouchene, H. Extractivism and resistance in North Africa. November 2019.

282. Hong, C., Mueller, N. D., Burney, J. A., Zhang, Y., AghaKouchak, A., Moore, F. C., ... & Davis, S. J. (2020). Impacts of ozone and climate change on yields of perennial crops in California. Nature Food, 1(3), 166-172.

283. Johnson, T. (2016). Nitrogen nation: The legacy of World War I and the politics of chemical agriculture in the United States, 1916–1933. Agricultural History, 90(2), 209-229.

284. Khan, S. A., Mulvaney, R. L., Ellsworth, T. R., & Boast, C. W. (2007). The myth of nitrogen fertilization for soil carbon sequestration. Journal of Environmental Quality, 36(6), 1821-1832.

285. Kumar, R. R., & Cho, J. Y. (2014). Reuse of hydroponic waste solution. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 21(16), 9569-9577.

286. Prakash, S., & Verma, J. P. (2016). Global perspective of potash for fertilizer production. In Potassium solubilizing microorganisms for sustainable agriculture (pp. 327-331). Springer, New Delhi.

287. Rulli, M. C., Saviori, A., & D’Odorico, P. (2013). Global land and water grabbing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(3), 892-897.

288. Schaffartzik, A., Mayer, A., Gingrich, S., Eisenmenger, N., Loy, C., & Krausmann, F. (2014). The global metabolic transition: Regional patterns and trends of global material flows, 1950–2010. Global Environmental Change, 26, 87-97.

289. Schechinger, A. W., & Cox, C. Feeding the world: Think US agriculture will end world hunger? Think again. EWG; 2016.

290. Strong Demand From Farmers For Crop-Boosting Potash Triggers A Mining Rush. Tim Treadgold. March 20, 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2019/03/20/strong-demand-from-farmers-for-crop-boosting-potash-triggers-a-mining-rush/#39d26f54436a

291. Warnock, J. W. (2011). Exploiting Saskatchewan's Potash: Who Benefits?. CCPA-Saskatchewan Office.

292. Why Rising Lithium Production Could Crush Fertilizer Stocks. Maxx Chatsko. August 9, 2017. https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/08/09/why-rising-lithium-production-could-crush-fertiliz.aspx

293. Why Soil Matters. Renee Cho. April 12, 2012. https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/04/12/why-soil-matters/

294. World Food Situation: FAO Food Price Index. October 22, 2020. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

# Fugue Devlog 15: Divine Demons, In-Game Game, and Seamless Textures

06.21.2022

## Modeling demonic divinities

Growing up I was very fond of Buddhist art and I would make an effort to visit various Buddhist temples whenever my family would go to China to see my grandparents. I found the paintings and sculptures of terrifying figures to be strangely calming, and only later did I learn that these fearsome beings are in fact benevolent, wrathful "protectors".

While visiting Kira's parents last week I had the opportunity to read through the catalogue for one of the Rubin Museum's opening exhibitions, "Demonic Divine" which was exactly on this topic. I've wanted to find some way to draw from this tradition of "divine demons" for Fugue and reading through the catalogue helped me figure out how I could do that.

Without going into too much detail, one fundamental Fugue world-element is the phenomenon of "hauntings", which are mental blocks and fears that characters experience. The character progression system is based around confronting and resolving these hauntings (perhaps in addition to a simpler experience-based system, not really sure yet). The way I've pictured this is that progression happens along a path (the character's "道"/"way" in a sense) and these hauntings are literal roadblocks, represented by these demons, along this path. So a key question is how exactly does this process of resolving hauntings1 work?

One other feature I want to include is an in-game game (tentatively called "Gem"), sort of like Triple Triad in Final Fantasy VIII. Including something like that lets you do a lot of interesting things: explore its cultural significance, show how different places and people interpret the game (perhaps with different house rules and variations), explore all the infrastructure that comes up around a relatively simple game once it becomes a major phenomenon (rules committees, judges, player associations, its role in national conflict, etc), and in general be a means of showing different value systems, thought processes, philosophies, etc, like Azad in Iain M. Banks' The Player of Games. I'm still working out Gem's design, but so far it's like some combination of chess, checkers, and Chinese checkers, with the variability of a card game—i.e. many different pieces with different abilities, and players can build a "deck" of pieces to play with like they might build a deck in Magic: The Gathering.

My current thinking is that to get through a demonic roadblock you challenge the demon to a game of Gem, in a "chess with death" style. The demon itself is represented as a piece on the game board that you need to remove, sort of like the king in chess. However the goal of the game is not necessarily to "defeat" the demon. Each demon represents a mental block/fear that has a complementary virtue; the point is not to excise the demon from your mind but to recognize its value as an ally. In the context of Gem, this means capturing the demon instead of destroying it. If I design Gem right, then capturing the demon will be comparatively difficult to destroying it. If you're able to capture it (maybe "convert" is a better term) then you have access to that piece for future games of Gem and perhaps some kind of bonus "blessing" for the character outside of Gem.

I've been working on modeling the first demon, based on Chitipati. Chitipati is two skeletons depicted with a frame of flames which acts as a memento mori and more generally represent endless change:

The first part I tried to model is the flame halo. Similar features are common in wrathful diety iconography so this model would be useful for other demons too. I made several attempts at modeling these flames using only Blender's geometry nodes with the hope of generating them procedurally, but they never came out well (maybe because of my inexperience with geometry nodes). In the end I hand-modeled five flames and use geometry nodes to distribute them in an arch, which I'm happy with:

When I moved on to modeling Chitipati I started with a fair amount of detail. It did not look very good, so I gave it another shot from scratch using a rougher approach, and it looked a lot better (though the hands look TERRIBLE...I'll give them more attention later maybe, to organize them as particular mudras). Relying on textures for detail rather than capturing it in the mesh makes a lot more sense for this game, especially if I'm using photo-textures. And because I'm rendering out at a lower resolution, finer mesh detail won't really show up anyways.

A side note: I'm modeling this demon as only one skeleton, rather than Chitipati's two.

This test render's resolution is high enough where the lack of mesh detail is apparent (pretty boxy looking in some parts). When rendered in-game the low detail looks more appropriate:

## Infilling and seamless tiling with GIMP

One idea for the flame halo was to use content-aware fill or a similar infilling algorithm to generate a full image of the flame background and then some how turn that into a 3d model. That route didn't really work—I couldn't make it look good; it just looked flat and janky—but I did find an infilling plugin for GIMP called Resynthesizer that is really promising. It didn't work very well for the flame frame (perhaps because it's an illustration or because there isn't a lot of content to reference for the infilling) but it works much better with texture photography. Here's an example using an image of some overgrowth:

After applying the Resynthesis plugin (using Filters > Map > Resynthesize) and checking "Make horizontally tileable" and "Make vertically tileable":

That result looks great, but it wasn't actually seamlessly tileable. Fortunately there is another filter, Filters > Map > Tile Seamless, that handles that:

It looks really good tiled:

This texture has a lot going on so it may be an easier example. If you look closely at the seamless tile version you can see some ghost leaves overlapping other leaves, which might be more noticeable in a sparser texture.

It's more apparent in these textures:

You can see some mushiness/blurriness/choppiness in the patterns from the overlapping areas. It's not terrible, especially for textures you won't look closely at and in the context of the game's downsampled resolution. Again, part of the game's aesthetic is about giving a big margin of error for quick-and-dirty assets, whether through low poly modeling or iffy automated tools.

When I have more time I want to see about integrating this directly into the Texture Editor from the last post; it would be nice to not have to open up GIMP every time to process images this way.

As a side note, it's been awhile since I've used GIMP and I'm impressed by this latest version! Feels like it had a big glow up like Blender did.

1. "Exorcisms", sort of line with how they work in Buddhism, though I don't know that I will call them that in-game.

# Half-Earth Socialism (The Game)

06.07.2022

For the past year I worked on Half-Earth Socialism, an online game accompanying the book of the same name by Drew Pendergrass and Troy Vettese (Verso 2022). The game launched at the beginning of May; you can play it here. This post will make more sense after you've played the game!

This post is adapted from a talk I gave at Trust (who organized the project) and goes a bit into the design and development process of the game.

## Genesis

Trust was approached early in 2021 about developing a website to accompany the forthcoming book Half-Earth Socialism, which would be published a little more than a year later. To very, very briefly summarize the book (the book itself is a quick read so I encourage you to give it a look!): the authors focus on land use as the central variable of concern for the health of the planet (hence the name "Half-Earth" socialism, building off of E.O. Wilson's idea of the same name) and emphasize the need for rational democratic planning to make decisions around the future of the world. For example: how much land should be devoted to energy production, and how much to food?

Democratic planning requires some way for people to meaningfully engage with plans: to understand them, evaluate them, and make their own plans. The original proposal for the site was based around a linear programming calculator where people could play with the parameters of a model that Drew wrote. I imagined it as something akin to Chris Crawford's Balance of the Planet (1990), where the player is similarly adjusting parameters of a global model to influence planetary health.

In this original version you could choose your energy mix, energy use levels, meat consumption, and so on. The model would figure out the allocation of land, emissions, and so on that were required. Using this model you can easily compare results and see, for example, that veganism opens up quite a lot of land for energy production. But part of the book's appeal is the vignettes throughout that imagine what life might be like under Half-Earth socialism or what it might be like were it not to happen. We wanted to take this model and build a richer, more narrative experience around it to reflect some of the feeling those vignettes evoked: the pacing of such a world, people's concerns and values, and the social fabric of their lives.

Before any development began we first participated in a reading group, organized by Chiara Di Leone, covering topics like: socialist cybernetics, cybernetic planning, complex systems management interface design, climate modeling, and games that we found interesting or related to the these topics. These helped us coalesce on a set of mechanics, design elements, constraints, and feelings to develop the game around.

Two games that we looked closely at were 11 Bit Studio's Frostpunk and Nerial's Reigns. Frostpunk's gameplay is centered around one primary variable (heat) and is filled with many brutal, no-win policy decisions around managing morale. The game is really well organized around its primary variable—it's very easy to see how heat is distributed, what's producing it, how it decays, and so on, so even though the decisions can be difficult, you're seldom disoriented or confused about what your priorities are. The game is, however, very dark and depressing. In contrast to Half-Earth Socialism's more utopian outlook, Frostpunk is a never-ending crisis. We knew that we wanted our game's arc to be different: the beginning is a difficult struggle to get through, but if you do well the game opens up into a world better than the pre-crisis past. There's light on the other side!

We knew early on that we wanted the game to be a web game, keeping in line with the original website idea and making sure that it's easy to access. If you're making a web game then you really need to consider mobile usage. We expected that most people would share the game on Twitter and thus others would likely encounter it on their phones and want to give it a try right there. That assumption's held: the majority of plays so far have been on mobile resolutions. Reigns was a main inspiration of how you could make a simple yet deeply engaging game for mobile. It has one main interaction—swiping left or right—but it's enough to support a great branching narrative. It's also very flexible in terms of time commitment: you can play a session for a few minutes or an hour if you want. That's something we wanted to replicate in our game—players could finish a run in 5 to 10 minutes, do something else, and come back and try a different approach later. That isn't how things turned out (people have spent 30 minutes just reading the starting cards) and in the end the scope of our game was just too complex to really reproduce these elements of Reigns.

From the whole reading group process came a few orienting values:

• Accuracy: Most games prioritize a fun and engaging experience, and often systems that have real-world correlates are simplified in service of this priority. But because of the nature of the book and the weight of the subject, we wanted to prioritize rigor and accuracy a bit more than a typical game would. This was a huge challenge because representing something as complicated as the planet and human economic activity requires a great deal of simplification regardless of commitment to accuracy, and with the complexity of the planet and the global economy, details matter a lot. And often details that don't seem to matter end up becoming quite important later on.
• Amusing: Climate change and ecological disaster are already very weighty topics without us needing to exaggerate it. We wanted to bring some levity to the game so that the player doesn't feel pummeled by depressing thing after depressing thing (although it does kind of happen because of the subject matter). So using dialogue, character design, etc, as outlets to lower the "seriousness" of the game and leave plenty of space for the content to do that.
• Expressive: Another goal was for the game to play like a political compass quiz, in a way. We had a few player "builds" (above) in mind that made play feel expressive.
• Quick: Shorter games that you play in rapid succession, to try different things. I think originally we wanted a session to be 5-10min...but sessions last far longer now. It takes at least 5 minutes just to soak in the game's starting content!

As mentioned above, take a cue from the book and convey the feeling of living under HES through dialogue and other narrative elements.

Development proceeded in roughly five categories:

• Story: the main beats of the game and game dialogue.
• Art Direction: character design, graphics, game feel, and so on.
• Game Design: the game's primary mechanics and interactions.
• Legibility: the game's information design, how players access/read the information they need to make decisions and how they make those decisions.
• Technical Requirements: various constraints around the game's technical infrastructure and architecture

## Story

We wanted to give the game world a richer feel through events, which give us opportunities to world-build and develop character personalities. They're also one main way players get feedback about their plans. More importantly they allow us to represent way more than we could with the core game model alone, which focuses on a relatively limited set of variables (water usage, land usage, electricity production, fuel production, etc). With a very simple probability system we can represent a much wider range of events like mass coral bleaching events or cultural changes like a new cuisine trend of eating invasive jellyfish, without needing to make the model itself much more complex.

Of course, the events we have in the game pale in comparison to all the possible events one might think of for the future. They allow us to represent more detail than we could otherwise but open up an overwhelming amount of things we could represent. It's one of those areas where we had to just stop adding things at some point, even though we probably could have added hundreds more.

## Technical Requirements

Mobile and web support were the primary technical constraints, and those came with their usual challenges (mostly cross-browser compatibility). The more interesting technical requirements were related to the models and data that we needed.

Early on we knew we wanted to have some kind of climate model running, but climate models are usually huge, requiring supercomputers long periods to run. Drew suggested Hector, which is a "simple climate model". It runs quickly on commodity hardware, but of course lacks the depth and detail of its massive counterparts. From a technical standpoint I didn't really want to have a server crunching a climate model for several players at once, even if it's a relatively simple one. We managed to get it to run directly in the browser so that each player runs their own model independently.

We have some other models running too:

• a biome model, not running on mobile but on desktop, which colors the world according to temperature and precipitation changes over time.
• a linear programming model for determining production resource allocation and guided assistance in planning. This ended up being reduced to a much simpler form because there weren't models available for the browser that handled the kind of optimization we needed.

The other major set of requirements were data requirements. For processes there were input requirements per unit output, impacts (e.g. CO2 emissions) per unit output, and current global process mixes. We also needed current emissions, current biodiversity loss, population projections aggregated for each region, global per-capita demand for each of our outputs, estimate per-capita impacts based on regional income levels, and impacts and inputs for different sectors/industries.

It's often very difficult to track down good numbers for these. Data may be available at regional or national levels, but not globally. Or there may be a lot of variability in estimates. Some technologies like vertical farming and cellular agriculture are very new, so there are only estimates for very limited cases, if at all. For example with vertical farming we could only find a couple sources that on a one or two crops published by vertical farming startups (so very unclear how trustworthy the numbers are), and instead relied more on values from more general indoor greenhouse farming.

## Art Direction

The game's art direction is mostly Son La's department but I'll briefly mention my two main contributions.

The first is the globe's design, which took an embarrassingly long time (I'm really inexperienced with shaders). Our main aesthetic reference was a sort of retro-computing, so we played a lot with poorer color representation (dithering) and lower resolutions (pixelation).

The final version drew from this graphic that was produced for an article about the book:

And here's the final version:

One major element of the game's feel was the imagery we used to represent projects, processes, and events. We had a very small team, and it was really only Son La creating visual content (and also working on the UI development). We ended up with 238 events, 123 projects, 29 processes, 9 industries, and 20 regions, all of which needed images, so ~420 images total. There was no way we could create all of that on our own, so we looked at CC-licensed and public domain imagery. The problem with sourcing images that way is that they vary a lot in quality and style, and they kind of just look like digital photos. We played around with ways to process them so that they were more interesting and consistent and ended up with the following line:

## Legibility

There is a lot to consider when assembling your plan and so a major challenge was making information available and clear to the player. All throughout the interface are tooltips and "factors" cards that breakdown what's contributing to whatever variable you clicked on. The hope is that whatever info you need to make a decision is available quickly, but it still is and feels like a lot of information!

## Game Design

The most challenging part of the project was the game design. There were a lot of different things we wanted to communicate, different feelings we wanted to evoke, and so that led us down a few different design paths. But the biggest difficult was that the game is meant to somewhat accurately represent a set of very complex systems—we wanted some legitimacy and rhetorical weight behind what happens in the game. This commitment to accuracy of complexity is directly at odds with making an entertaining and accessible game. Most games are not complex in terms of their mechanics. Even games that are very deep do not have to be complex, and they often aren't. Truly complex systems make for unfun games because they in their very nature inscrutable, so they become a very frustrating experience. You never quite know why something is happening: is it because of something you did, is it because of something you didn't do, or did it have nothing to do with you at all? Part of what makes a game fun is learning its rules and systems, and one reasonably expects consistency, predictability, and legibility in how the game responds to your actions. Complex systems don't care.

Balancing was also very difficult to do with such a complex game. We couldn't anticipate all the paths or strategies a player might try. Ultimately we hoped to avoid players finding a strategy that works in the game that wouldn't work in the real world because of some detail we left unmodeled, but it would require a lot more testing to have some assurance that we succeeded.

I'll briefly describe two sets of ideas we had that I really liked but got cut for one reason or another.

### Regional System

I remember "space" being a big concern. Given the book's focus on land use, how we deal with space is really important. But it came in conflict with priorities like accuracy. Games might abstract space to make it more manageable, like using larger units of space which then reduces the level of detail you can represent spatially; or they might limit their focus e.g. to a single region or map or level. The earth is really big. We can't really represent it in great detail without just blasting the player with stuff to manage. So we could limit the player's focus at a given time to a single region. That's basically where this design came from.

One bonus was the opportunity for more visual feedback/eye candy: you could zoom into a region and see wildlife return, to make your impacts on the world feel rewarding and more obvious.

But there was a more important game design element to this regional system. We wanted to avoid was the "god view" in games, where the player unilaterally makes decisions of all kinds, which is contra the democratic planning that's emphasized in the book. It's very challenging to design a game about global planning without making it a god game! Games are often fantasies of control...representing democracy in a game very difficult because it can disrupt that fantasy and make the game a frustrating experience. It's interesting how certain kinds of friction are expected in a game, like a hard boss fight being difficult, but others, like having your decisions questioned or ignored, are not.

I don't think we succeeded in avoiding the god view. The parliamentary system is supposed to represent that to some degree, and you can be ousted from power if you're too unpopular. But that's not quite the same as democratic planning. One iteration of this regional system idea had a greater and more autonomous role for individual regions (in the current game they mostly just exist to spatialize the game a bit, but they don't really do much on their own). The player would set targets and maybe some specific policies/projects but regions would go and figure out how to achieve those targets on their own. There would be more bargaining with regions to accept targets or to achieve them in a particular way.

A further iteration on this idea—which was definitely out of reach given our constraints—was a multiplayer regional system. Different people play different regions, and perhaps elect one player to be a global planner for a term. The global planner mediates regional relationships: regions have to negotiate with one another, like if I'm representing East Asia I want North America to reduce their energy usage in exchange for reducing my coal usage or something.

### Turn-based System

The other major concept was a turn-based game, similar to Into the Breach. Each turn is some fixed time amount, and you have a preview of everything that will happen in the next turn or next n turns. For example: this natural gas plant will emit this much methane next turn, this patch of permafrost has 50% chance of melting by next turn, this hurricane will move left 2 tiles next turn, etc. It doesn't really work for the global scale, since you can't deal with things like an individual power plant, but I still think you could make a fun and interesting game this way if you could get away with more simplifications. And it's not clear what amount of time a turn should represent. The hurricane movement, for example, requires a much shorter turn time, but other decisions like building new power plants are better suited to turns of a year or more. Similarly, it's not clear what the spatial resolution should be. How many hexagons should the globe be divided into? A hurricane and a power plant are on two different scales.

One advantage of this design was that scientific uncertainty can more easily be a bigger part of the game. That natural gas plant might emit this much methane, but you don't really know without better sensors. That 50% estimate for that patch of permafrost is based on your best climate models, but if you invest in improving them and training more climate scientists you'd have a better estimate. In this way the benefits of good long-term planning manifest as "powerups" in a sense that make the shorter game loop easier.

### Card System

We ended up settling on a card-based system. It felt more familiar and easier conceptually, giving players something to hold on to while we barraged them with other new information to absorb. Cards also provide a convenient way to compartmentalize "abilities" and a give players a discrete object to think with. Basically all player actions are expressed through manipulating cards in some way.

There are still a lot of ways to use cards. One idea was to have your plan be something like equipment slots in an RPG, like Diablo (on the left here). But instead of a head slot for your helmet you'd have a concrete slot for your concrete production technology, and another one for your transport policy, and so on.

This is kind of how it works in Civilization 6 (on the right). This form ended up being too limiting because there are many projects we wanted to include that don't fit neatly into an existing slot, thus requiring many single-purpose slots, and just making the whole thing clunky and confusing.

Above are a couple other ideas—on the left we have something based around a deck. One idea was that your "plan" is a deck of cards that you assemble and use to react to events, under the idea that a good plan prepares you for the future. So if your scientists are telling you a major heatwave is likely, you'd have a mass cooling center policy prepared to respond to that heatwave, if it does happen.

This ended up not really working because it feels like busywork for the player—you're making two redundant decisions, the decision to establish the cooling centers, and the decision to use them when the heatwaves occurs. In trying to minimize extra actions, we'd assume that if you have the cooling centers in place, you'd want to use them.

Above is one of our prototypes for card interactions. This one is a Reigns-like interface, with four directions instead of two. We ditched it because as I mentioned the Reigns reactive playstyle didn't quite fit what we needed.

We settled on this "scanning" interaction, which has a retro computing punchcard-like vibe. Conceptually this is like the deck idea without the redundancy: in a way you're scanning cards to add them to your deck (plan) so they make bad future events less likely.

We also wanted to add a political aspect to the game, in part to make gameplay more interesting (the player can't just do everything they want to do—to lessen the "god view" problem) and also add some drama and an opportunity to develop the world through some strong personalities. They also give players some scaffolding to develop playstyles. There's more clear guidance on what an accelerationist might want, for example, to nudge the player towards using those cards. The parliament system was also conceived to bring some of the "democratic" side of "democratic planning", but I don't think we succeeded in that. It's my main regret of the game. I feel that we would have needed to design the game very differently for that to have worked, and at that point it was too late to make such major changes.

## Tooling

One last thing I want to show off is the Half-Earth editor, where all the content (dialogue, events, regions, projects, processes, and so on) and model parameters are written. Whenever I embark on a project like this, one of the first things I do (once the main architecture/schemas are sorted out) is build content authoring tools. It makes later work much quicker, makes it easier to experiment with the content, helps me think through more ideas and possible conflicts in that level of the design, and makes it much easier to bring on others (like writers/researchers Lucy Chinen and Spencer Roberts) to contribute without needing to muck about in the code.

## Final note

Half-Earth Socialism was one of the bigger projects I've worked on, and I'm proud of what we accomplished with such a small team. Our ultimate ambition was way beyond our capacity and resources, but we managed to achieve quite a lot of it. The game was made possible because of these people:

# Fugue Devlog 14: Authoring Tools

06.05.2022

Wow, it's been almost a year since I last updated this blog.

I haven't had time to work on Fugue until a month or so ago. Since then I've been chipping away at more tooling. Once the core game mechanics/systems are in place, I'm expecting that most of the time will be spent creating content for the game: writing, modeling, environment design, etc. So I'm building out tooling and figuring out strategies to streamline all of these processes.

Godot makes it easy to develop editor plugins that integrate relatively seamlessly. It's not without its challenges and frustrations but those are more to do with Godot in general than specifically about their plugin development process (see below).

## Writing

The game will play out mostly through characters saying and doing things, and these actions need to be specified in a way where I don't need to meticulously program each one. Previously the game's narrative elements used "Dialogue" as the main organizing element, focusing on spoken dialogue, and let me write "scripts" of spoken dialogue lines with a playback system to have the appropriate characters say their lines in order. That ended up being too limiting because I want to write not only dialogue but to specify various actions/stage directions to write scripts that basically describe entire scenes, including character movement and animation, sound and environmental cues, and so on. So I restructured that whole system around "Sequence" as the main organizing element, with "Dialogue" as a sub-component.

A Sequence is composed of "Actions", which include dialogue lines, choice prompts, animation triggers, game variable setting, character movement and rotation, etc. At the time of writing the following actions are available:

• Line (L): A line of dialogue, spoken by a single Actor.
• Decision (%): A set of choices that the player must choose from.
• VoiceOver (V): A line of voice-over dialogue. The difference between this and Line is that it does not require the speaking actor to be present and shows in a fixed position on screen.
• Prompt (?): Basically a combination of Line and Decision. A line of dialogue is displayed with the decision's choices.
• Pause (#): A blocking pause in the sequence
• SetVar (=): Set a state variable to the specified value (strings only). There are a number of targets
• Global: Set it on the global state
• Sequence: Set it on the local state (local to the current sequence). These values persist through multiple executions of the same sequence (i.e. they aren't reset whenever the sequence is run again).
• An Actor: Set it on the local state (local to a specific actor).
• PlayAnimation (>): Play an animation with the specified for the specified Actor
• MoveTo (->): Move the Actor to the specified target
• You can use this to "bounce" the player character if they enter somewhere they aren't supposed to.
• LookAt (@): Have the Actor look at the specified target
• ToggleNode (N): Toggle the visibility of the specified node. Can fade it in/out (but looks quite janky)
• RepositionNode (>N): Move a node to the position and rotation of the specified target. This happens instantaneously...so you could use it for teleportation; but more likely you'd use it to rearrange a scene while it's faded out.
• TogglePortal (P): Enable/disable the specified portal.
• AddItem (+): Add an item to the player's inventory
• PlaySound ())): Play a sound
• Parable (~): Start or end a Parable (Quest)
• Fade (F): Complete fade the scene in or out
• ChangeScene (>S): Change the scene. Because sequences are associated with one scene, this will end the sequence!

Sequences may be triggered in one of three ways: the player interacting with an object (such as talking to an NPC), the player entering a zone/area, or they automatically start when a scene loads ("ambient" sequences).

A "Sequence Script" is a graph of two types of nodes: "Verses", which are lists of actions, and "Forks", which include one or more "Branches" that each have a set of conditions. If a branch's conditions are true then its child verses are executed.

Sequences are associated with only one scene. Generally multiple sequences will be related in some way: the might be part of the same narrative arc, for example. So Sequences can be further organized into "Stories" which is basically just a grouping of Sequences, without any significant additional functionality.

The Sequence and Story Editors both make it very easy to quickly sketch out scripts and later refine them. They both have built-in validators to ensure that scripts are correctly specified, i.e. they don't refer to any objects that aren't in the scene, aren't missing any required data, etc.

Sequences and Stories are just stored as relatively simple JSON so they can be further processed/analyzed outside of Godot easily.

I expect that as the game's writing and development continues more actions will be needed. But for now this set has been comprehensive enough.

## Textures

Finding source images that fit my licensing requirements and then editing them into textures is a very tedious process. I built a web tool that makes it much easier to find public domain and CC source images (vastly simplified by Openverse), cut out clippings from them and pack those clippings into textures or generate seamless textures by wrapping and blending their edges. It tracks where the clips were sourced from so that attribution is much easier to manage.

## Music

I'm not at the point where I've given a ton of thought to the game's music, but I do have one tool, dust, that I developed to help sketch out musical ideas. I didn't develop it specifically for this game but it'll be useful here too. It's a chord progression generator/jammer that outputs MIDI so it can be used as an input to most DAWs (tested with Bitwig Studio and Live 11). It helps to get around blank-canvas-syndrome by giving you a chord base to start working with.

## Miscellaneous

### Items

I've started working on the item system, which is very simple at the moment (and hopefully will stay that way). To manage the items I created an Item Editor, which, though a lot simpler than the Sequence Editor, is just as useful.

### Blender scripts and templates

Blender's also been nice to work with because of its support for Python scripts. It's a little clunky to get things integrated, but can be powerful once you're going. In my case I'm mostly using a "quick export" script that helps me avoid the tedious work of keeping exported files organized (navigating to the correct folder, setting the filename, etc) and double-checking my export settings are correct. In the case of items, which require a static icon to show in the UI, the export script automatically exports a properly-cropped render of the item to the item icons folder so I don't have to bother with that at all.

Another small but immensely helpful thing is having a specific template for Fugue modeling work, with materials, cameras, and what not preconfigured. My material settings change very infrequently; I'm usually just swapping out textures, so this saves me a lot of time configuring materials over and over again.

### Dialogue Layout System

Not really a tool, but something I've been refining for awhile now. This is the system that determines where dialogue boxes are placed on screen. Many games have a fixed dialogue box, e.g. at the center bottom of the screen, but I want it to feel more spatial, especially as there won't be any voiced lines in the game (too expensive/too much work/difficult to change and iterate on) so there won't be any 3d audio to offer that auditory depth.

As far as I know there is no easy or reliable way to layout rectangles in a 2d space to guarantee that there are no overlaps. Not only should there be no overlaps, but each dialogue box should be reasonably close to its "host" (the actor that's speaking) so that it's clear who's speaking. I have a reasonable expectation/constraint for myself that something like five at most actors should be speaking at once and the game has a minimum viewport size to ensure there's a reasonable amount of space. That is, I'm not expecting that overlaps will be impossible, only that they are unlikely given these constraints.

The approach I'm using now is using a fixed set of anchors for each object and a quadtree to detect collisions. We just try placing a box at one of an object's anchors, and if it collides with an existing dialogue box or object, try the next anchor.

As you can see from the prototype above (on-screen objects are beige, off-screen objects are grey, and dialogue boxes are black), it's not perfect. The box 8 at the top overlaps a bit with object 2 — this is due to how dialogue boxes for off-screen objects are handled, which could be refined, but I'm treating as an acceptable edge case for now.

Another shortcoming is how 2d bounding boxes are calculated from 3d objects. Basically I compute the bounding rectangular prism around the object and project that to 2d space. Depending on the shape of the object that may work well or it may end up placing an anchor far-ish from the object's mesh. You can kind of see it in the screenshot below, the "I'm on the move" dialogue box is meant to accompany the smaller NPC, but it's kind of far away. Tighter bounding boxes might be possible but I'm worried about the overhead they'd require. Something to look more into.

### Unit Testing

Godot doesn't have its own unit testing framework but there are two popular third-party options: gdUnit3 and Gut. They both seem fairly powerful but Gut felt a bit clunky and I couldn't get gdUnit3 to work properly (compile errors, which I chalk up to Godot's weird stochastic-feeling nature, more on that below). I ended up writing my own very simple testing framework instead. It lacks basically all of the advanced features present in other testing frameworks (spies, mocks, etc), but for my needs it's working great.

## Things not covered here

There are still a few key content areas that I don't have a good approach for:

• Character animation. This is something I'm not very good at and a huge factor in the visual quality of the game. Crunchy textures and low-poly models are a lot more forgiving than terrible animations. There are now deep learning motion capture tools that might work with a commodity web camera, but I haven't tried them yet so I don't know if their output is good and what the workflow is like.
• Mapping textures. Taking a texture and then adjusting a model's UV map so that it doesn't look warped is also really, really tedious. No idea how to streamline that.
• Object modeling. This is harder to streamline/automate because there's so much variation. Some categories like buildings and plants could be streamlined through procedural generation via Blender's geometry node system. Fortunately I enjoy modeling so I don't really mind doing this, it'll just be very time consuming. One more general possibility is to figure out a decent processing pipeline for taking free models and converting them into an polygon count that matches everything else. But finding an approach that is robust enough seems unlikely.
• Character modeling. To make the world feel lively I'd like to have many, many background characters and a fair amount of more important NPCs. This might be doable with some kind of procedural/parameter character variation system (i.e. creating a few key archetype models, then having a script to vary some vertices, scales, etc) alongside with a procedural texture generation system (for clothing, etc). Again, this might be doable with Blender's geometry node system.

## Thoughts on working with Godot

I've spent a far amount of time with Godot while working on all of this. My only reference point is Unity, which was very unpleasant to work with. Everything felt so fragile. Small changes can break tons of other things, with no easy way to undo the damage. Kind of like how in Microsoft Word adding a space can mess up your whole document's layout.

Godot has overall felt better than this, but it still has a similar, if reduced, fragility. I've felt discouraged to experiment with new ideas out of the fear that I will just break a bunch of existing code/scenes and have to manually fix everything. I've found that even just opening a scene file can alter its contents—not yet in a way that has caused me trouble, but it's still very different than other programming work I've done, where things really only change if you change them. It's like trying to build a house on moving ground. Version control is a bit of a safety blanket but its effectiveness depends on what changes I can revert to.

GDScript has been a surprisingly pleasant language. It still lacks many features I'd like like sets, first class functions, and iterators (all of which I believe are coming in Godot 4) but usually those haven't been an issue. What has been very frustrating is how Godot parses/compiles scripts. If you have a syntax error in one file it ends up breaking a bunch of other files that depend on it (which is to be expected) but it reports these issues as obscure errors that don't point to the originating error. I'll be inundated with messages like The class "YourClass" couldn't be fully loaded (script error or cyclic dependency). (it will not point you to what this error might be) or mysterious errors like Cannot get class '_'. repeating several times. Then it requires a painful process of trying to figure out where the syntax error actually is by opening scripts one-by-one until I stumble upon it.

This is less likely to happen if you're using Godot's built-in script editor because you're more likely to catch the syntax error before it causes too much trouble. However Godot's built-in editor is really lacking, mainly because you can only have one script open at a time and if you need to edit multiple files at once it requires a very tedious process of manually jumping between files one at a time. So I use an external editor, which does have a language server integration with Godot—so it does catch syntax errors, but sometimes I don't catch them in time, and then these dizzying cascading errors happen.

I've also noticed that sometimes there will be compile errors that are fixed by reloading the project. It feels like these happen because of an unusual (sometimes seemingly random) parse order for scripts, like classes are found as undeclared when in fact they are. I haven't looked into it too much.

That all being said, Godot has been wonderful to work with overall. These frustrating experiences are infrequent, and it sounds like many of them are being addressed in Godot 4. I've enjoyed it way more than Unity and it's an amazing privilege to have access to such a powerful open-source project!

# Log: 7/16/2021

07.16.2021

This week: low-density ancient urbanism, an extraction-free Atacama Desert, AI and climate change, and Wakanda.

# The real urban jungle: how ancient societies reimagined what cities could be, Patrick Roberts

I'm by no means an expert in urbanism but as far as I can tell most cities around the world, while still considerably varied, have comparable density, layout, and land-use. The ancient tropical cities of the Khmer and Classic Maya empires were more sprawled and interspersed with agricultural plots and "forest gardens". In general they sound more integrated with the environment—perhaps easier because unlike the cities that would come later they were not yet inundated with toxic industry. Whether or not the impact of urban living shakes out to be an environmental net positive or negative is something I've meant to read more about but yet haven't gotten around to. But these examples of different forms of urban life are nice to think about, even if they occurred under tremendously different circumstances.

# Lithium Landscapes: From Abstract Imaginaries to Deep Time and Multi-Scalar Topologies, Samir Bhowmik

A reflection on the vast timescales that give rise to lithium and the earthbound terraforming (human extraction of) lithium gives rise to. I especially like this painting:

Portuguese artist Mafalda Paiva's painting Lithium Fields, which depicts the Atacama Desert reminds us of what could have been—a paradise instead of an extractive landscape. In the artist’s vision, “the salt flats hum with a preternatural vibrancy, an effect produced by the exaggerated density of species and radically foreshortened topography.”

# These Are The Startups Applying AI To Tackle Climate Change, Rob Toews

I'm skeptical that AI can be applied to substantially help mitigate climate change. There are specific applications that seem to be useful, e.g. around power efficiency, the development of new materials, etc. It probably has a role to play but hard to say whether it will be much more than other technologies treated with far less fervor—this article breathlessly states: "Artificial intelligence is the most powerful tool that humanity has at its disposal in the twenty-first century."

I wonder if the wide proliferation of AI that many of its proponents either foretell or actively try to engineer through their own companies/investments will net out positive or negative in terms of carbon, given the intense energy requirements to train the largest, most sophisticated models. If AI is commodified and so as unnecessarily ubiquitous as microchips then perhaps it'll come out net positive emissions.

This list of companies claiming to use AI against climate change is interesting, especially because it reveals what it means to publications like Forbes to "tackle" climate change. Several of the companies are focused on identifying climate risks or managing climate insurance for businesses. A great deal of time is spent companies applying AI to carbon offsets, which looks more like companies bending over backwards to legitimize a completely ineffective/actively harmful way of "addressing" climate change rather than actually working to reduce their emissions. The "solution" to offsets sounds like more surveillance infrastructure.

# Wakanda

I'm not a big fan of the MCU, but the creation of a cinematic universe opens up a lot of storytelling and character possibilities so I reluctantly follow along every so often to see what they're doing with that capacity. I wish it were some other more interesting, less indulgently militaristic fictional universe that had the resources to do something like that. Instead we get Marvel and soon the Mattel Cinematic Universe.

Ever since I found Wakanda listed as a US free trade partner I wondered how Wakanda might relate to other countries and how people outside perceive it. While reading Doomwar I came across this off-handed mention from Shuri:

I'm so curious about the terms of that loan. The first Black Panther movie wrestled a bit with Wakanda's responsibility towards its neighboring nations or developing nations (as it used to posture as) but if I recall it never really answered that question. I haven't watched Black Panther recently so forgive any misremembering, but I believe Killmonger was just defeated without any satisfying resolution to his analysis/proposals about spreading Wakanda's wealth. IIRC he proposed distributing vibranium for uprisings across the world—even if T'Challa disagreed with violent uprisings, maybe the spreading of that wealth is worth considering. Although given what Shuri says here, maybe that's exactly what they're doing. But again, I wonder on what terms?

I wonder if in some ways the now-opened Wakanda is perceived in similar ways to how China is perceived in our world. I don't know what it takes to qualify as a "superpower" but I imagine Wakanda checks off many of those boxes. Surely many people in the MCU pin their hopes on Wakanda to usurp the planetary hegemons...sadly, they'll probably be disappointed.